Bitcoin Expected to Rebound in July, Could Reach $75,000 After June Slump

Bitcoin’s rebound follows a weak second quarter in which its main demand channels faded and trading activity thinned. The $68,000 area matters because Bitfinex says it combines the short-term holder cost basis, reflecting the average entry price of buyers over the past five months, with the second-quarter opening level. A first retest could prompt underwater holders to sell at breakeven, making the threshold a key test of whether the recovery can develop into a sustained advance.

Bitcoin climbed above $66,000 on July 21, its highest in more than a month, extending a rebound of more than 15% from its early-July low. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs logged a sixth straight session of net inflows by July 22 and attracted about $779 million since July 13, according to SoSoValue. Still, K33 Research said 30-day spot volume stood at just 62.4% of the annual average on July 19, underscoring a seasonal “summer slumber” as the token approaches $68,000.

Bitcoin rebounded after the crypto market’s deleveraging in 2022, but its price remains sensitive to capital flows and technical support levels. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB assesses market cycles using realized price and the 200-week moving average. Investors often use these indicators to gauge whether a bear market has bottomed, drawing attention to the latest warning.

Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June and ended the month at $58,526, marking its worst June performance since June 2022. PlanB said the price remained above realized price but was below the 200-week moving average, suggesting a bottom might not yet have formed. Bitcoin could fall further to $52,000, the analyst warned.

Alternative.me’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index gauges risk appetite in the crypto market using volatility, trading volume and market sentiment. Bitcoin’s decline has pushed fear into extreme territory. Historically, a bottom in sentiment that coincides with long-term Power Law support has often been viewed as an important signal that prices may be stabilizing.

Bitcoin most recently fell below $67,000, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11, entering “extreme fear” territory and reaching its lowest level since early April 2025. Market analysts say “max fear” could foreshadow a rebound. If risk appetite recovers, Bitcoin may have a chance to catch up with U.S. stocks, which recently hit record highs.

Bitcoin has seen buying significantly outpace selling near $65,000, indicating that investors are actively buying the dip. This rare trading setup matters because sustained market support could ease near-term selling pressure and create conditions for a rebound from recent lows.

The latest data puts BTC’s key threshold at $66,700. Analysts say holding consistently above that level could trigger a relief rally toward $71,000, representing a potential gain of about 6.4%. The reports did not identify the data provider, the date of the figures or the observation period.