AI Fuels Memory Supercycle as SigmaIntell Sees DRAM Price Gains Slowing in 2026
The expansion of AI server capacity has driven a surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory. Suppliers have responded by prioritizing wafer and advanced packaging capacity for higher-margin products, squeezing supplies of conventional DRAM. Market research firm SigmaIntell says the imbalance has created an AI-driven memory supercycle affecting costs for servers, PCs and smartphones.
SigmaIntell’s latest assessment expects DRAM price momentum to reach a turning point in the second quarter of 2026, with the quarterly increase narrowing to about 30%. Growth is projected to cool further in the second half as capacity allocation gradually stabilizes and customer stockpiling subsides. AI server demand will continue to support the market in the third quarter of 2026, but mounting pressure in consumer markets and a high comparison base will further curb price gains.
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The history behind this eventDRAM Rally Persists as AI Memory Costs Soar
The AI boom is fueling demand for high-bandwidth memory, but constrained capacity and tight supply are also pushing up conventional DRAM prices. Bernstein said revenue per wafer for conventional DRAM has surpassed that of HBM, suggesting memory-chip makers' profit momentum is broadening beyond a single high-end product. Taiwan's memory supply chain is also expected to benefit.
Bernstein's latest forecast sees the DRAM rally and the industry's windfall-profit cycle continuing through 2027. Earnings per share at the three major memory-chip makers could also peak in 2027 as HBM prices rise before reversing in 2028. Higher prices will boost supplier revenue but also increase hardware costs for building AI servers and training large models.
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