Treasury Yields Temper Bitcoin’s Bull-Market Signal

Bitcoin’s rebound has revived bullish sentiment, but nominal price gains may overstate the market’s progress once the cost of capital is considered. Analysts point to the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield as a key benchmark: higher risk-free rates reduce the present value of speculative, long-duration assets. That framework puts cryptocurrencies and technology shares, including the Nasdaq, on a more comparable macroeconomic footing.

Adjusted for the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, the real macro peaks for both bitcoin and the Nasdaq remain in the 2020-2021 period, when borrowing costs were substantially lower. The finding suggests the latest recovery has yet to surpass the valuation extremes of the pandemic-era liquidity boom. Whether bitcoin can stage a decisive breakout may therefore depend on when, and how far, Treasury yields decline—not solely on its dollar price.