Bitcoin RSI Bullish Divergence Echoes 2022 Market Bottom

Bitcoin’s historical price swings have followed cyclical patterns, and analysts often use technical indicators to predict bear-market bottoms. The two-month stochastic relative strength index is a key gauge of medium- to long-term price momentum. Because it successfully identified Bitcoin’s price lows during the bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022, the indicator is considered an important technical reference for assessing whether the market has bottomed and when a bull market could resume.

As of July 2026, TradingView analyst Max Crypto said the two-month stochastic RSI had entered oversold territory below 30 in March and was currently at about 4.81. Historical data show that a reading of zero followed by a bullish crossover signals a price bottom. He predicted that Bitcoin would repeat the pattern in 2026, offering the current market a technical signal for the bottom.

The relative strength index, or RSI, measures price momentum. A bullish divergence forms when Bitcoin's price continues to fall while RSI troughs move higher, a pattern often seen as a sign that selling pressure is easing. Cointelegraph said the current setup resembles the bottoming phase of the 2022 bear market, prompting speculation that Bitcoin may be nearing a cyclical low.

In July 2026, Bitcoin attempted to reclaim $60,000 as its four-hour RSI showed a key bullish divergence, leading some analysts to predict a possible price reversal. Traders have yet to reach a consensus, however. More cautious observers believe the cryptocurrency could still fall below its recent low before August 2026, making its ability to hold above $60,000 a key indicator to watch.

Bitcoin began to recover after emerging from its bear market in late 2022, when its stochastic RSI turned higher from oversold territory. Analyst Quantum Ascend used that cycle as a benchmark and said the momentum indicator was repeating its historical pattern, prompting market interest in whether BTC has finished forming a bottom.

Quantum Ascend's latest analysis said Bitcoin's current stochastic RSI pattern “nearly perfectly” matches the final stage of the late-2022 bear market, with highly similar oversold and rebound conditions. The analysis provided no BTC price target or specific amount. For now, it suggests only that a bottom may have formed, subject to confirmation from subsequent price action.

The relative strength index, or RSI, measures an asset’s price momentum, with traders commonly using weekly readings to assess medium- and long-term trends. If Bitcoin’s price makes a new low while its RSI forms a higher low, that would constitute a bullish divergence. Historically, such a pattern can emerge in the late stages of a bear market, but it does not mean prices will necessarily reverse immediately.

Analysts are now watching whether Bitcoin’s weekly RSI can hold a key area and form a higher low. Trader Jelle said the next price turning point could be close once the RSI begins rising again. However, the report provided no specific RSI reading, Bitcoin price, analysis date, institutional affiliation or monetary amount. The signal still requires confirmation from subsequent weekly closes.