Mr. Berg Says RUP Indicator Shows Bitcoin Near Bear-Market Bottom
Bitcoin’s relative unrealized profit and loss (RUP) indicator is a key gauge of the crypto market’s overall profit-and-loss position and a precise predictor of market cycles. It tracks the proportion of investors’ unrealized gains and losses as market prices fluctuate. Historical data show that readings between 0.30 and 0.38 have marked major long-term market bottoms, making the indicator an important reference for investors assessing the bottom of a bear market.
According to Mr. Berg’s latest analysis, Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 in early June pushed the RUP indicator down to about 0.351, formally placing it within the historical bottom range of 0.30 to 0.38. The reading suggests Bitcoin has entered a bottoming zone. Mr. Berg said the market price may be in the final stretch toward the ultimate bottom of the current bear market.
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The history behind this eventBitcoin Metrics Suggest February's Slide to $60,000 May Have Marked the Bottom
Bitcoin cycle bottoms typically require confirmation across several on-chain and derivatives indicators. Realized cap reflects holders' cost basis, RHODL measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and funding rates capture sentiment in perpetual futures markets. A simultaneous stabilization across all three can therefore provide an important signal.
The latest analysis suggests Bitcoin's selloff to about $60,000 in February may have established a cyclical bottom. Realized cap remained stable at the time, RHODL readings entered a bottoming range and perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. Those signals suggest leveraged long positions were flushed out and that selling pressure may have been released in a concentrated burst.
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