Artemis Sees Circle Valuation Reaching $50 Billion Despite Stablecoin Rivalry

Circle is using its dollar-backed stablecoin USDC and blockchain infrastructure to challenge the conventional cross-border settlement system dominated by banks and payment networks. ARK Invest Chief Executive Cathie Wood sees the shift as a potentially significant overhaul of financial infrastructure, positioning Circle to benefit as stablecoins gain wider use for moving and settling money across markets.

Wood said public markets continue to undervalue Circle’s long-term prospects, comparing its opportunity with the growth paths of Visa and Mastercard as electronic payments expanded. She expects CRCL to emerge as a major beneficiary of technological disruption in finance. The report did not specify a price target, investment amount or timetable, leaving the thesis dependent on the pace of USDC adoption.

Circle issues USDC, one of the world’s largest dollar-backed stablecoins, and earns much of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. Its results are closely watched as stablecoins move deeper into payments and capital markets. Circle is also expanding beyond token issuance through Arc, its Layer 1 blockchain, and a payments network designed to connect financial institutions with blockchain-based settlement infrastructure.

Circle reported second-quarter revenue of $701 million on Aug. 5, slightly below Wall Street estimates, while adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations and lifted the stock about 10% in premarket trading. USDC circulation increased 19% to $73.3 billion during the quarter, while on-chain transaction volume surged 151%. The company also named BlackRock and Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., or DTCC, among Arc’s validators, highlighting growing institutional support for the network.

Circle issues the US dollar stablecoin USDC and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. USDC can support cross-border payments and is also suited to low-value, high-frequency microtransactions between AI agents. Bernstein therefore expects stablecoins to evolve from crypto trading instruments into financial infrastructure for the internet, with Circle's growth depending on greater circulation and broader use cases.

Bernstein reiterated its “outperform” rating on Circle and its $190 price target on March 10, 2026. The target was about 70% above the March 9 closing price of $111.84, after the shares had earlier risen 9.74% that day. On March 25, Bernstein said the market had misread the CLARITY Act: its restrictions primarily targeted yield payments by distributors such as Coinbase, not Circle's interest income from USDC reserves.

Circle issues USDC, which is pegged one-to-one to the US dollar, and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. With interest rates remaining elevated and tokenized markets expanding, its role is shifting from a crypto trading tool to payment and settlement infrastructure. Clear Street said the value of tokenized assets grew from about $1.5 billion in early 2023 to roughly $26.5 billion in March 2026.

As of March 16, 2026, Circle shares had risen more than 100% over one month. The stock gained 8% that day to $124.37 and was up about 49% year to date, while Bernstein had set a $190 price target. A March 13 report said Aon was piloting stablecoin premium payments with Coinbase and Paxos, while Wells Fargo had filed a trademark application for “WFUSD” covering trading, payments, wallets and custody.

Circle issues USDC and generates most of its revenue from interest on the dollar reserves backing the stablecoin. Investment bank William Blair believes stablecoins are evolving from crypto trading instruments into infrastructure for cross-border payments. With regulations and networks still fragmented across jurisdictions, Circle’s payment network and USDC’s liquidity are key to maintaining its market leadership.

William Blair said in its latest report that Circle’s stock had recently outperformed other crypto-related shares, interpreting the gains as evidence that investors recognize the resilience of USDC’s market capitalization and Circle’s infrastructure advantages. However, the available information does not disclose the report’s exact publication date, the size of the share-price gain, USDC’s market capitalization or a price target, and those figures should not be inferred.

Circle issues the U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC, which briefly lost its peg during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. As stablecoins increasingly become core tools for cross-border payments and onchain finance, Circle is evolving from a single-product issuer into a financial infrastructure provider spanning payments, settlement and blockchain networks.

Circle’s 2025 results showed that year-end USDC circulation rose 72% from a year earlier to $75.3 billion, helping lift full-year total revenue by 64% to $2.7 billion. Quarterly transaction volume approached $12 trillion, up 247% year over year. The testnet for its Arc blockchain is progressing smoothly, with the mainnet expected to launch in 2026.

Circle issues the U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC and derives most of its revenue from income on the cash and U.S. Treasury reserves backing the token. The company went public in June 2025. USDC’s rapid expansion has made Circle’s results an important gauge of stablecoin adoption and the company’s sensitivity to interest rates.

Circle reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million, beating market expectations. USDC in circulation exceeded $75 billion at year-end, up 72% from a year earlier. Although IPO-related stock-based compensation pushed the company to an annual loss, its shares initially rose more than 20% after the results, with the gain later approaching 50%. Bernstein also reiterated its $190 price target.