Bernstein Backs Circle With $190 Target, Sees Stablecoins as Core AI and Payments Infrastructure

Circle, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, 2025, issues USDC and earns most of its revenue from interest on the stablecoin’s reserve assets. The company’s outlook is therefore closely tied to USDC supply and usage. As dollar-backed tokens gain traction in trading, payments and cross-border settlement, USDC’s ability to compete with Tether’s USDT has become a key measure of Circle’s growth potential.

Bernstein said Circle’s expansion can continue even if the U.S. CLARITY Act, a broader crypto market-structure bill, remains stalled. The research firm pointed to a rebound in USDC supply and said the token’s share of stablecoin transaction volume had surpassed USDT for the first time, signaling a new growth cycle. Bernstein set a $140 price target for Circle, implying about 59% upside from the stock’s level when the report was issued.

Circle is using its dollar-backed stablecoin USDC and blockchain infrastructure to challenge the conventional cross-border settlement system dominated by banks and payment networks. ARK Invest Chief Executive Cathie Wood sees the shift as a potentially significant overhaul of financial infrastructure, positioning Circle to benefit as stablecoins gain wider use for moving and settling money across markets.

Wood said public markets continue to undervalue Circle’s long-term prospects, comparing its opportunity with the growth paths of Visa and Mastercard as electronic payments expanded. She expects CRCL to emerge as a major beneficiary of technological disruption in finance. The report did not specify a price target, investment amount or timetable, leaving the thesis dependent on the pace of USDC adoption.

Circle, the issuer of the USDC dollar-backed stablecoin, has built an advantage that extends beyond token market share. Artemis argues that USDC’s liquidity across exchanges, wallets and financial institutions creates a network that would be costly and time-consuming for new entrants to replicate. That infrastructure could allow Circle to evolve from a stablecoin issuer into a full-stack money platform spanning payments, settlement and digital-asset services.

Circle shares, trading under the ticker CRCL, plunged 17% after reports that technology and financial heavyweights were forming a stablecoin consortium, intensifying concerns about competition. Artemis nevertheless said Circle’s long-term valuation could reach $50 billion. The research firm expects the global stablecoin market to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, betting that USDC’s established liquidity and distribution channels will preserve Circle’s position as larger companies enter the sector.

Circle Internet Group, issuer of the dollar-backed stablecoin USDC, still derives most of its revenue from interest earned on cash and U.S. government securities held in reserve. That leaves the company exposed to lower interest rates and swings in digital-asset demand, making revenue diversification strategically important. Circle is betting that autonomous AI agents will need programmable, always-on money to buy data, computing power and digital services, potentially creating a machine-to-machine payments market that card-based infrastructure was not designed to serve.

On Aug. 5, 2026, Circle reported second-quarter USDC circulation of $73.3 billion, up 19% from a year earlier, while onchain transaction volume surged 151% to $14.8 trillion. Revenue rose 7% to $701.3 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 8% to $143 million. Circle had launched Circle Agent Stack on May 11, adding Agent Wallets, an Agent Marketplace and gas-free Nanopayments, as it seeks to turn autonomous-agent activity into a new stablecoin market and a source of transaction-based revenue.

Circle issues USDC, one of the world’s largest dollar-backed stablecoins, and earns much of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. Its results are closely watched as stablecoins move deeper into payments and capital markets. Circle is also expanding beyond token issuance through Arc, its Layer 1 blockchain, and a payments network designed to connect financial institutions with blockchain-based settlement infrastructure.

Circle reported second-quarter revenue of $701 million on Aug. 5, slightly below Wall Street estimates, while adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations and lifted the stock about 10% in premarket trading. USDC circulation increased 19% to $73.3 billion during the quarter, while on-chain transaction volume surged 151%. The company also named BlackRock and Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., or DTCC, among Arc’s validators, highlighting growing institutional support for the network.

Circle Internet Group’s business is anchored by USDC, the dollar-pegged stablecoin whose reserves are held largely in cash and short-term U.S. government securities. That structure leaves revenue highly sensitive to both USDC circulation and interest rates. Tokenized money-market funds pose a growing challenge because they can give investors direct access to underlying yields, potentially drawing funds away from non-yield-bearing stablecoins and reducing Circle’s reserve base and earnings power.

Morgan Stanley downgraded Circle (NYSE: CRCL) to Underweight from Equal-weight on Aug. 3, 2026, and cut its price target to $38 from $106, a reduction of about 64%. The bank said the contraction in USDC circulation had exposed Circle’s dependence on reserve income, while tokenized funds could push its revenue mix toward lower-margin transaction businesses. Circle shares fell about 7% after the downgrade, reflecting concern that intensifying onchain competition could weaken the stablecoin issuer’s growth and profitability.

Circle Internet Group issues USDC, a dollar-backed stablecoin whose circulation is central to the company’s reserve-income-driven business model. Open USD emerged on June 30 with backing from more than 140 companies and a structure designed to share reserve earnings with distribution partners, raising concerns that the rival could pressure Circle’s margins and weaken its position across payments and digital-asset markets.

Bernstein on July 30 lowered its Circle price target to $140 from $190, a reduction of about 26%, while retaining its Outperform rating. The investment firm said the market had overstated the competitive threat from Open USD and expected those concerns to fade. Analysts pointed to USDC supply remaining near its historical high as evidence that Circle’s liquidity base and network effects remain resilient.

Circle issues the U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin USDC and earns most of its revenue from interest generated by the reserve assets backing the token. As stablecoins increasingly enter payments and financial markets, Circle’s profitability has become a key gauge of USDC adoption and the digital-asset industry’s development.

Circle reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43 for the fourth quarter of 2025, above Wall Street’s estimate of $0.35 and about 23% ahead of expectations. Investors bet that stablecoin demand would continue to grow after the results, sending Circle shares up more than 15% at one point in U.S. premarket trading.

Circle issues USDC, which is pegged one-to-one to the US dollar, and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. With interest rates remaining elevated and tokenized markets expanding, its role is shifting from a crypto trading tool to payment and settlement infrastructure. Clear Street said the value of tokenized assets grew from about $1.5 billion in early 2023 to roughly $26.5 billion in March 2026.

As of March 16, 2026, Circle shares had risen more than 100% over one month. The stock gained 8% that day to $124.37 and was up about 49% year to date, while Bernstein had set a $190 price target. A March 13 report said Aon was piloting stablecoin premium payments with Coinbase and Paxos, while Wells Fargo had filed a trademark application for “WFUSD” covering trading, payments, wallets and custody.

Circle issues USDC and generates most of its revenue from interest on the dollar reserves backing the stablecoin. Investment bank William Blair believes stablecoins are evolving from crypto trading instruments into infrastructure for cross-border payments. With regulations and networks still fragmented across jurisdictions, Circle’s payment network and USDC’s liquidity are key to maintaining its market leadership.

William Blair said in its latest report that Circle’s stock had recently outperformed other crypto-related shares, interpreting the gains as evidence that investors recognize the resilience of USDC’s market capitalization and Circle’s infrastructure advantages. However, the available information does not disclose the report’s exact publication date, the size of the share-price gain, USDC’s market capitalization or a price target, and those figures should not be inferred.