CoinDesk Backtest Maps Bitcoin Risk in 60/40 Portfolios

Bitcoin’s growing institutional access through spot exchange-traded products has shifted the portfolio debate from whether investors should own crypto to how much risk they can withstand. Lionsoul Global Chief Investment Officer Gregory Mall examined bitcoin inside a conventional portfolio of 60% global equities and 40% core bonds, comparing direct exposure with a large-cap crypto basket and a rules-based sleeve that moves between bitcoin and cash as trends change.

In a CoinDesk column published Aug. 5, 2026, Mall tested 2.5% and 10% spot-bitcoin allocations from January 2021 through March 2026, with monthly rebalancing. Bitcoin raised returns and Sharpe ratios in strong crypto markets, but larger weights increased volatility and maximum drawdowns. A trend-managed sleeve preserved much of the upside in bull periods while limiting losses in bear markets; in sideways regimes, it was better positioned to avoid volatility that delivered little reward.