Polymarket Faces Insider-Trading Suspicions After Bets on ZachXBT Probe Yield More Than $1 Million

Polymarket allows traders to use crypto assets to wager on outcomes ranging from elections to economic events, with contract prices often treated as real-time measures of collective expectations. The decentralized prediction market relies heavily on transparent blockchain records and wallet activity to establish credibility, making signs of trading on nonpublic information or coordinated bets a significant test of market integrity and a potential focus for regulators.

A Bloomberg Businessweek analysis flagged about $200 million of Polymarket trading during the first half as potentially linked to insider activity. The top 1% of profitable accounts captured more than half of all gains, while over 50% of winning wallets were created within 24 hours before placing their bets. Some traders also appeared to split positions across multiple related wallets before withdrawing proceeds through Coinbase, intensifying scrutiny of the platform’s fairness.

Polymarket lets users trade on event outcomes using crypto assets. Military operations involve undisclosed national security information, and advance bets by people with inside knowledge could undermine market integrity and operational secrecy. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission warned on February 25, 2026, that trading event contracts using material nonpublic information may be illegal.

Before the United States struck Iran on February 28, 2026, six newly created accounts correctly bet that an attack would occur by the end of February, earning more than $1.2 million in combined profits. The contract drew nearly $90 million in trading volume, while related markets amassed more than $529 million. On May 18, Bubblemaps also said nine linked accounts had won 98% of more than 80 military-related bets, generating $2.4 million in total profits. The conflict also pushed Bitcoin lower and Hyperliquid oil futures higher.

Polymarket is a crypto-settled prediction market where traders can buy and sell contracts tied to political and geopolitical outcomes. The bets in question concerned whether the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire by April 7, 2026. Profiting from nonpublic information about the negotiations would undermine market fairness and the credibility of its forecasts, but there has been no definitive finding of insider trading.

On April 8, on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain disclosed that three wallets created and funded only on April 7, with no previous on-chain activity, earned $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450, respectively, for a combined profit of $484,575. The implied probability of the “ceasefire” contract had been as low as 2.9%–10.3%. One trader entered at 13:59, while Trump did not confirm the agreement on Truth Social until 22:32.

ZachXBT has long used onchain fund flows to investigate crypto fraud and insider trading, with his public findings often affecting the reputations of projects involved and their token prices. Although the subject of this investigation has not been disclosed, it has already attracted heavy wagering on prediction market Polymarket. The betting has also raised fairness concerns over whether some participants possess nonpublic information.

ZachXBT is expected to release a major insider-trading investigation on February 26. Nearly $3 million has been wagered on Polymarket contracts speculating about which organization will be exposed, with Solana ecosystem project Meteora currently carrying the highest odds. Recent reporting also said suspected insider wallets had wagered that Axiom would be the subject of the investigation, building positions worth $1.2 million.

Axiom is an on-chain crypto trading platform whose employees may have access to users' wallet and transaction data. ZachXBT alleged that employee Broox Bauer abused internal tools to track the private wallets of key opinion leaders, or KOLs, in an attempt to trade ahead of them for profit. The case highlights risks involving platform access controls and user privacy. The investigation did not disclose the amount of any realized profit.

As of July 19, 2026, ZachXBT had published his findings, alleging that Broox Bauer exploited an information advantage to engage in suspected insider trading. After the allegations surfaced, Axiom revoked his access to the relevant tools and launched an in-depth investigation. It has not disclosed the value of the transactions involved, the number of affected users, whether Bauer has been suspended or dismissed, or when the investigation will be completed.

ZachXBT is a pseudonymous on-chain investigator known for exposing crypto scams, hacks and insider trading. The case concerns Axiom employees who may have misused internal tools to monitor activity in users’ private wallets and then trade on that information, highlighting risks surrounding access controls for sensitive platform data and information asymmetry in prediction markets.

On February 26, 2026, ZachXBT alleged that Axiom employees, including Broox Bauer, had engaged in insider trading since early 2025. After the allegations were published, the related Polymarket market resolved with Axiom as the answer. More than $9.7 million in contracts changed hands on the question, with total bets approaching $40 million, and one user made about $400,000. Axiom immediately revoked access to the tools involved, apologized and continued its investigation.

Axiom Exchange is a cryptocurrency trading platform whose employees can access sensitive data, including users’ transactions and wallet information. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT alleged that senior employee Broox Bauer abused internal privileges to track users’ private wallets and trade memecoins. If substantiated, the conduct would undermine the platform’s data governance and market fairness.

The Protocol recently reported the allegations, but the available material did not specify the publication date, tokens involved, transaction amounts or profits. It also did not include responses from Axiom or Bauer. The same weekly edition covered the Ethereum Foundation’s new roadmap and EVMbench, OpenAI’s benchmark for testing AI systems’ ability to maintain smart-contract security.

Axiom Exchange is a non-custodial onchain trading platform founded in 2024 and selected for Y Combinator's Winter 2025 batch. According to ZachXBT, it has generated more than $390 million in cumulative revenue. The case raises questions about whether the platform adequately restricted employee access to users' wallet data, with implications for trading fairness and privacy.

ZachXBT alleged on February 26, 2026, that Broox Bauer, a senior business development employee at Axiom, had used internal tools to track private wallets since early 2025, initially targeting about 10 to 20 addresses. The evidence cited included backend screenshots from April and August 2025. Axiom has revoked access to the tools and launched an investigation. The allegations have not been independently verified.

ZachXBT, a crypto investigator known for tracing on-chain fund flows, has exposed numerous scams and hacking incidents. His latest investigation targets several employees at what he described as one of the crypto industry's most profitable companies. They are suspected of having traded on nonpublic information over an extended period, raising questions about the company's internal controls, management of conflicts of interest and market fairness.

ZachXBT said he would release the full report on Feb. 26 but has yet to disclose the company's name, the number of people involved, the trading period or the sums at issue. Bettors on Polymarket briefly identified Meteora as a possible target, prompting questions about whether the information had influenced the prediction market. ZachXBT responded that some information inevitably circulated during interviews with multiple parties.

ZachXBT, known for tracing blockchain fund flows and exposing crypto scams, has turned his attention to a crypto company ranked among the world’s seven most profitable, alleging that it may have engaged in insider trading over an extended period. The institution’s identity, the amounts traded and supporting evidence have yet to be disclosed, leaving the allegation subject to verification in the forthcoming report.

ZachXBT said he would release the full investigation on February 26, prompting Polymarket to open a related prediction market. Traders have largely bet that Meteora or Pump.fun could be the subject of the exposé. ZachXBT has not confirmed either company’s involvement, while Polymarket’s betting volume and the final report’s findings have yet to be disclosed.