Polymarket

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market where users can trade on the outcomes of political, sporting, financial and geopolitical events. The World Cup and geopolitical developments have recently boosted trading volumes, while the market-implied probability of the CLARITY Act passing has fallen to a record low. France and the Czech Republic have also blocked the platform, while its path to legalization in the United States and risks involving insider trading and settlement manipulation are drawing scrutiny. Polymarket's probabilities are often viewed as a gauge of collective expectations, but regulatory changes and the reliability of its prices remain key areas to watch.