Grayscale Says Fed Pause May Mark Bitcoin Bottom

Bitcoin’s market structure has shifted as spot exchange-traded funds and institutional investors deepen its links to global finance. Grayscale argues the asset now trades less predictably around its roughly four-year halving cycle and more like gold or rate-sensitive technology stocks. That makes economic growth, real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy expectations increasingly important for judging when a bear market has run its course.

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said in a July 22, 2026 report that Bitcoin may already have bottomed if the Fed refrains from further rate increases and growth remains resilient. Bitcoin has rebounded to about $65,000 after briefly falling below $58,000 in early July, but remains roughly 49% below its October 2025 peak near $126,000. The traditional cycle model, based on average historical drawdowns of about 80%, instead points to a low in September or October.