Iran Prediction-Market Trades Raise Insider-Trading Concerns

Prediction markets use event contracts that let users wager on the outcomes of wars, political developments and economic events. People privy to undisclosed military decisions could profit in advance, while unusual price movements could also reveal operational signals. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates the sector, but its rules and enforcement remain under development. Goldman Sachs has incorporated market-implied probabilities into its research, while Robinhood has expanded its event-contract business, extending the risks from crypto platforms into mainstream fintech.

Hours before U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, Polymarket traders wagered $553,000 on contracts tied to Iran and Ali Khamenei. Another trader made about $1 million by correctly betting on the timing of a U.S. military attack. Before Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy facilities on March 23, a roughly $500 million crude-oil futures order appeared. The White House emailed staff a warning the following day, and Congress introduced bills restricting officials’ trading on March 25 and 26.