BofA Expects Sports Event Contracts to Reach $1.1 Trillion in Annual Volume
Bank of America said U.S. sports event contracts are moving from a niche forecasting tool into mainstream financial trading. The contracts allow investors to trade probabilities tied to game outcomes. Compared with state-licensed sports betting, access under federal regulation, broad reach and tax advantages could accelerate the expansion of platforms such as Kalshi.
As of July 20, 2026, Bank of America’s latest analysis estimated that annual U.S. sports-related event-contract trading volume could grow to $1.1 trillion, generating about $10 billion in annualized revenue for prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi. The report said the market’s rapid expansion showed that prediction markets were gradually becoming a mainstream financial trading tool.
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The history behind this eventPrediction Market Volumes Surge as Banks Weigh Risks and Opportunities
Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of elections, economic data releases and other events, combining crowd forecasting with financial speculation. As the market expands rapidly, banks must decide whether to offer trading, clearing or client services while assessing regulatory and reputational risks and competition with traditional derivatives.
Analysts estimate prediction market trading volume will rise from $16 billion to $64 billion in 2025, quadrupling in size. The growing prominence of Kalshi and Polymarket offers opportunities to generate fees and attract new customers, but banks must still weigh compliance costs, concerns about market manipulation and potential losses from event contracts.
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