Bitcoin Demand Remains Deep in Contraction, With U.S.-Iran Tensions Key to Rebound, CryptoQuant Says
Bitcoin demand has contracted continuously since late November 2025, signaling that the market is in a distribution phase. CryptoQuant said retail investors and whales holding 1,000–10,000 BTC continued to sell even as U.S. spot ETFs and Strategy increased their holdings. Institutional buying has yet to offset the structural selling pressure, raising questions about whether the bear market will persist.
CryptoQuant reported on April 2, 2026, that Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand stood at about minus 63,000 BTC at the end of March. ETFs bought about 50,000 BTC over the same period, the most since October 2025, while Strategy added about 44,000 BTC. If the U.S.-Iran conflict eases, Bitcoin could first test $71,500 in the short term before challenging resistance at $81,200, where a January rebound stalled.
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The history behind this eventCryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Bulls Are Back, With Major Rally Possible Above $69,400
CryptoQuant is using on-chain and derivatives data to assess Bitcoin’s market direction. Unlike a short-lived short squeeze driven by bears being forced to cover, newly opened long positions usually signal that investors are actively betting on higher prices. Whether the latest rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum can continue is therefore an important indicator of whether the bull market has returned.
At the time of publication, CryptoQuant said the rebound was being driven mainly by new long positions in the derivatives market rather than a short squeeze. If Bitcoin breaks above $69,400 and holds that level, it could go on to test $79,000. The latter is viewed as the next key resistance level and an important threshold for gauging a shift between bull and bear markets.
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