K33 Says Unusually Pessimistic Bitcoin Traders Are Helping Limit Crash Risk

During the bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin often suffered another sharp decline after rebounding to its 200-day moving average as leverage and bullish positions quickly rebuilt. K33 Research says traders have been unusually defensive during the 2026 market cycle, preventing a similar leverage cycle from taking shape. Their pessimism is instead providing a buffer against further downside.

K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said in a report published on May 19, 2026, that Bitcoin's 30-day average funding rate had remained negative for 81 consecutive days, while the annualized basis on CME futures had fallen below 2.5%. Bitcoin failed to break above its 200-day moving average at about $83,000, and U.S. spot ETFs recorded $1.6 billion in net outflows over five days. Even so, K33's base case is that the cycle's maximum drawdown was reached at about $60,000 in February.