Mystery Polymarket Trader Makes $5 Million on Spain’s World Cup Draw

Polymarket is a crypto prediction market settled in USDC where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events, with prices reflecting the market’s estimated probabilities. World Cup debutant Cape Verde faced defending European champion and tournament favorite Spain in its opening match of the 2026 tournament. An anonymous wallet’s large bet on the upset highlighted the risks of long-odds wagers and raised concerns about possible inside information.

On June 15, Cape Verde held Spain to a 0–0 draw in Atlanta after Polymarket had put Spain’s pre-match win probability at about 92%. The wallet, named “fishalive” and created only that month, wagered about $4 million across bets that Spain would not win and that Cape Verde would cover a 2.5-goal spread. Its funds ultimately grew to about $9 million, for a profit of roughly $5 million. After the trade came to light on June 16, on-chain investigators began examining whether the trader had access to inside information.