Study: CFOs Expect AI to Hit Routine Roles First

A National Bureau of Economic Research working paper surveyed chief financial officers about AI’s impact on employment. The findings show that companies currently expect displacement pressure to be concentrated in routine, clerical and administrative roles, rather than AI replacing workers across the board. The results highlight how job duties and the ability to use AI will shape the risks facing individual positions.

The study found that U.S. CFOs expect AI to cause only limited layoffs in 2026. Highly skilled workers such as architects and engineers are more likely to retain their jobs in the near term, particularly those who can use AI tools effectively. More repetitive administrative work is expected to bear the brunt of the impact. The study did not disclose a specific number of layoffs or any monetary amount.