New Jersey Takes Kalshi Prediction-Market Fight to Supreme Court

Prediction markets such as Kalshi list contracts whose payouts depend on event outcomes, including sports results. Kalshi argues those products are swaps governed exclusively by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under the Commodity Exchange Act, while New Jersey says they are wagers subject to state gambling laws. The dispute could reshape oversight of a multibillion-dollar industry and affect state-licensed sportsbooks, tribal gaming rights and consumer protections, including safeguards against underage and compulsive gambling.

New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court on Sept. 2, becoming the first state to seek the justices’ intervention. The state wants to overturn an April 2-1 Third Circuit ruling that backed Kalshi and federal preemption. The filing followed a 3-0 Ninth Circuit decision the previous week in a Nevada case that found sports-event contracts were not swaps and could face state regulation. U.S. sports-betting revenue reached $16.89 billion in 2025, excluding tribal sportsbooks. The Supreme Court must first decide whether to hear the appeal.

Kalshi operates a designated contract market licensed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing users to trade event contracts tied to sports, elections and other outcomes. The central dispute is whether sports contracts qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and therefore fall under exclusive CFTC oversight, or amount to online gambling subject to state licensing. The outcome could reshape a multibillion-dollar industry that includes Kalshi, Polymarket and other fast-growing platforms.

On Aug. 28, 2026, the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 3-0 that Kalshi was unlikely to show federal law preempted Nevada’s gambling regulations, upholding the dissolution of an injunction protecting its sports contracts. The decision conflicts with an April 6 ruling by the Third Circuit, which voted 2-1 to shield Kalshi from New Jersey enforcement. New Jersey faced a Sept. 3 deadline to seek Supreme Court review, while the new circuit split increased the likelihood that the justices will ultimately settle the jurisdictional dispute.

Kalshi operates a designated contract market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and argues that its event contracts are federally supervised derivatives rather than wagers subject to state licensing. The dispute tests where financial regulation ends and gambling oversight begins, with major implications for prediction-market operators, state consumer-protection regimes and the CFTC’s claim to exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act.

On Aug. 28, 2026, a unanimous three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit held that Kalshi had not shown the Commodity Exchange Act was likely to preempt Nevada gaming laws. The court affirmed the dissolution of an injunction covering sports-event contracts and sent questions involving election contracts back to the district court. No monetary damages were awarded. The decision conflicts with the Third Circuit’s approach, prompting the CFTC to signal a potential Supreme Court fight.

Kalshi operates a CFTC-designated contract market where users trade event contracts tied to sports, politics and other outcomes. The company says those products are derivatives governed by the federal Commodity Exchange Act, while New York treats its sports contracts as unlicensed gambling subject to state safeguards, taxes and age limits. The dispute has become a direct test of whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s asserted exclusive jurisdiction over national derivatives markets preempts state gambling enforcement.

On Aug. 11, 2026, the CFTC invoked emergency authority after KalshiEX notified it of a “market emergency,” ordering the exchange to keep operating in line with the Commodity Exchange Act’s Core Principles. New York Attorney General Letitia James had sued on July 31, seeking a temporary restraining order barring Kalshi from offering all event contracts nationwide and more than $36 billion in damages. The action marked the agency’s first use of such emergency powers since 1980 and sharply escalated the federal-state jurisdictional fight.

Kalshi is a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated designated contract market where users trade yes-or-no event contracts that settle at a maximum of $1. The New York State Gaming Commission argues that sports contracts constitute gambling subject to state law. The dispute centers on whether the federal Commodity Exchange Act preempts state enforcement and could also affect the platform’s cost of operating across state lines.

On July 7, 2026, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres of the Southern District of New York denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction. She found that the company had not sufficiently shown that federal law preempted New York’s gambling laws and that the associated compliance costs did not constitute irreparable harm. Kalshi filed a notice of appeal the same day, and the case entered the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit on July 8 under docket number 26-1835.

Prediction markets turn events such as sports outcomes into tradable event contracts. KalshiEX LLC is a designated contract market approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The dispute centers on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws. The CFTC argues that derivatives markets require uniform federal oversight, while New Mexico considers the contracts a form of online sports betting requiring a state license. The ruling could shape the boundaries of state enforcement and platform operations.

New Mexico’s attorney general sued Kalshi on June 4, 2026, alleging that the platform operated without a state license and allowed users aged 18 and older to participate, including people below the state’s minimum gambling age of 21. The case was moved to federal court on June 8. The CFTC filed a separate lawsuit against the state government on June 12, seeking confirmation of federal preemption and preliminary and permanent injunctions. New Mexico is the eighth state targeted by a CFTC lawsuit over enforcement, and the complaint did not seek a specific amount in damages.

Kalshi structures outcomes in sports, elections and other areas as event contracts and operates as a designated contract market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Minnesota, however, considers the activity gambling subject to state law. The dispute centers on whether the Commodity Exchange Act grants exclusive federal jurisdiction that preempts the state ban under the U.S. Constitution’s Supremacy Clause. The outcome could reshape regulatory boundaries nationwide.

Governor Tim Walz signed SF 4760 on May 18, 2026, before replacing it with SF 3432 on May 26. Effective August 1, the law makes operating, facilitating or advertising prediction markets a felony. The CFTC sued on May 19 and sought an injunction, followed by Kalshi on May 27. Kalshi also argued that the advertising restrictions violate the First Amendment. The litigation is expected to continue through appeals and could ultimately be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that offers event contracts tied to outcomes including sports results. The Ohio Casino Control Commission considers such products to be sports betting that requires a license, prompting Kalshi to sue in October 2025. The dispute centers on whether federal derivatives regulation preempts state intervention, and its outcome could also affect platforms such as Polymarket.

On May 12, 2026, the CFTC filed an amicus brief with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit supporting Kalshi’s challenge to a federal district court’s March 2026 denial of an injunction. The CFTC called Ohio’s action a “jurisdictional overreach” and asked the court to affirm its exclusive authority over event contracts offered on designated contract markets. The filing marks the agency’s second intervention in a similar case, following its support for Crypto.com in the Ninth Circuit in February.

Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing users to trade event contracts tied to outcomes including sports results. Each contract settles at a maximum of $1. New Jersey's Division of Gaming Enforcement classified the activity as unlicensed sports betting, raising the question of whether federal derivatives regulation preempts state law.

On April 6, 2026, the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit voted 2–1 to uphold a preliminary injunction issued on April 28, 2025. The court found that sports event contracts are swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and fall under the CFTC's exclusive jurisdiction. On June 26, the state separately requested an extension until September 4 to file a petition for a writ of certiorari with the Supreme Court.

Kalshi is a designated contract market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, and argues that event contracts tied to sports, elections and other outcomes are swaps governed by the federal Commodity Exchange Act. The Nevada Gaming Control Board contends that Kalshi is offering gambling without a license. The dispute centers on whether the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction preempts state gaming laws and could determine whether prediction markets can operate under uniform nationwide rules.

On March 19, 2026, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit denied Kalshi’s request for an emergency administrative stay, leaving intact a March 2 order returning the case to state court. On March 20, Nevada First Judicial District Court Judge Jason Woodbury issued a 14-day temporary restraining order. He extended it on April 3, finding that an event contract was functionally similar to gambling by comparing it with an identical $100 wager on a baseball game.