Rare Bitcoin Bullish Divergence Signal Puts $90,000 in Sight

Market depth measures the value of buy and sell orders close to the prevailing price, offering a test of whether a rally reflects broad demand or a few large trades moving a thin market. CoinDesk Research said Bitcoin retained substantial order-book liquidity during August, normally a quiet month as Northern Hemisphere trading desks reduce activity. The resilience suggests large capital flows were absorbed without a meaningful deterioration in execution conditions.

Bitcoin climbed nearly 25% last week from about $64,000 to above $80,000, its strongest weekly performance in more than three years. Average 0.5% market depth across major spot exchanges stood at roughly $9.6 million on Aug. 18, when the rally began, and eased to $8.7 million by Aug. 25. CoinDesk Research described the decline as normal snapshot variation, while strong exchange-traded fund inflows and a U.S. Treasury bond-buyback announcement provided additional support.

Bitcoin has struggled to recover from a steep drawdown after peaking near $126,000 in October 2025, repeatedly finding demand around $60,000 in 2026. The latest daily chart is drawing attention because an inverse head-and-shoulders formation can signal that a downtrend is losing force. A sustained move through the neckline would turn months of subdued trading into a potential bullish reversal, while failure to confirm the pattern would leave the broader recovery thesis intact only on paper.

Bitcoin closed near $64,208 on Aug. 6 as the prospective right shoulder continued to develop. A high-volume break above the roughly $66,000-to-$67,000 neckline would confirm the setup and imply a measured target near $76,000. The caveat is that Bitcoin must hold its 50-day moving average around $63,000. Regulatory risk also persists: the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act by a 15-9 vote on May 14, but its prospects of becoming law in 2026 remain uncertain.

Bitcoin is widely viewed as a volatile risk asset, and its price often moves in tandem with U.S. technology stocks and the Nasdaq. The $60,000 level is both a key psychological threshold and an important test of whether the bullish structure can endure. Analysts also use the 200-week moving average as a major technical gauge of the long-term trend.

Over a recent weekend, Bitcoin held above $60,000 and showed relative resilience despite a marked decline in the Nasdaq, raising expectations that risk capital could return. Analysts said that if BTC continues to hold firmly above its 200-week moving average, it could first test $70,000 and then potentially reach $92,630.

Bitcoin’s “realized price” reflects holders’ average on-chain cost basis and is widely used to gauge whether investors are willing to defend profitable positions. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode said the cost-basis range for holders who have owned Bitcoin for three to six months has become the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below it could mean the recent rebound is merely a pause in the decline.

On May 31, 2026, Bitcoin rebounded 2.5% from around $72,500 and recovered to $74,000 on Sunday. Glassnode data identified $71,400 as the key near-term cost-basis support, with the next target at $78,200. Following similar breakouts since 2017, Bitcoin has gained an average of 36.6% over six months, with a 79.2% probability of rising, suggesting it could reach $101,100 by year-end.

A cup-and-handle pattern is a bullish continuation signal in which the price first traces a rounded cup before briefly consolidating into a handle. After a breakout, traders often use the cup’s depth to project the potential gain. Bitcoin’s weekly chart has formed the structure over several years, making its ability to hold the $74,000 neckline critical to the medium-term bullish case. Technical patterns, however, represent scenarios rather than guarantees.

Cointelegraph reported on May 26, 2026, that Crypto Tice had set a minimum target of $220,000, provided BTC holds $74,000. At the time, the price had rebounded about 30% from its Feb. 6 low below $60,000. CryptoQuant data showed Binance spot volume had fallen 81%, from $198.6 billion in October 2025 to $36.4 billion, a decline viewed as a sign of easing selling pressure.

Bitcoin has risen from about $63,000 to above $80,000 over the past three months, reclaiming Glassnode’s True Market Mean of $78,200 and the short-term holder cost basis of $79,100. That has put most active investors back in profit and made the Active Realized Price of $85,200 the next key resistance level.

Bitcoin traded at about $80,800 on May 7, 2026. Bitfinex said futures funding rates had shifted from negative to neutral or slightly positive, while Glassnode estimated that roughly $2 billion in short gamma exposure near $82,000 could fuel further gains. On May 6, Ondo Finance, JPMorgan Kinexys, Mastercard and Ripple also completed a cross-border redemption of OUSG through the XRP Ledger, settling the transaction in under five seconds.

Bitcoin has gradually recovered from a low of about $60,000 in February 2026, supported by renewed inflows into spot ETFs. It has also remained resilient amid conflict involving Iran, rising oil prices and multiple DeFi attacks. The market is therefore looking for a break above $90,000, which would turn Bitcoin’s year-to-date return positive. The prospect has also raised concerns that retail sentiment may be overheating.

On April 29, 2026, Santiment said its scan of thousands of posts on X, Reddit, Telegram and other platforms over the previous week found that predictions of Bitcoin rising above $90,000 clearly dominated the discussion. Forecasts of $50,000 to $59,000 were largely dismissed as FUD. However, BTC had slipped to about $77,000 after trading above $79,000 on Monday, and Santiment warned that an extremely bullish consensus often signals the risk of a price reversal.

Bitcoin has recently held firm at $72,000, indicating that buyers are gradually absorbing pressure from geopolitical conflict risks. Activity among large holders has increased, while BTC inflows to cryptocurrency exchanges have fallen markedly, signaling weaker potential selling pressure. Traders are therefore eyeing $88,000 as the next target.

The latest technical signals show that Bitcoin’s 30-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and 50-day moving average have formed support, while market bias has shifted bullish. The key near-term level is the $76,000 consolidation zone. Analysts expect the rally could accelerate and challenge $88,000 if the price makes a decisive breakout.

CryptoQuant is using on-chain and derivatives data to assess Bitcoin’s market direction. Unlike a short-lived short squeeze driven by bears being forced to cover, newly opened long positions usually signal that investors are actively betting on higher prices. Whether the latest rebounds in Bitcoin and Ethereum can continue is therefore an important indicator of whether the bull market has returned.

At the time of publication, CryptoQuant said the rebound was being driven mainly by new long positions in the derivatives market rather than a short squeeze. If Bitcoin breaks above $69,400 and holds that level, it could go on to test $79,000. The latter is viewed as the next key resistance level and an important threshold for gauging a shift between bull and bear markets.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level as institutional buying through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs picked up, bringing some ETF investors close to breakeven. The market views $68,000 as the key medium-term dividing line between bullish and bearish momentum. Whether Bitcoin can hold above it will help determine if the rebound extends into April.

Bitcoin recently traded above $70,000 at one point during the New York session, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $500 million in net inflows in a single day. Around March 11, analysts said that if the weekly close continued to hold above the $68,000 trendline, a break above $72,000 could quickly propel Bitcoin into the major short-liquidation zone at $80,000.