Polymarket and Kalshi Post Record Iran War Trading Volumes

Kalshi and Polymarket allow traders to buy contracts tied to outcomes in politics, sports and other real-world events, with prices serving as market-implied probabilities. Their growing scale underscores prediction markets’ shift from niche wagering products toward a broader financial and consumer category, drawing closer scrutiny of liquidity, market structure and regulation as more users and capital enter the sector.

Combined trading volume at Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $50.6 billion in July 2026, setting a monthly record as World Cup-related contracts helped drive activity. Polymarket’s US market posted a 54% increase from June, while volume on its main platform fell 26% over the same period. The divergence suggests that fresh demand was concentrated in the regulated US offering and major sports events rather than spread evenly across Polymarket’s operations.

Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcomes of sporting, political and other events, with prices reflecting the market-implied probability of each result. Betting demand generated by the 2026 FIFA World Cup rapidly expanded Kalshi and Polymarket, bringing greater scrutiny to their liquidity, compliance and regulatory disputes across U.S. states.

Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined $44.8 billion in trading volume in June 2026, up 75% from May. Kalshi's monthly volume surged 87.4% to a platform record. Polymarket also returned to growth, supported by World Cup enthusiasm and U.S. market demand, though both companies continued to face regulatory challenges from several U.S. state governments.

Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager on political, military and sporting outcomes through event contracts. Such products are regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, but have raised fairness concerns because people with access to confidential information could profit from them. In January 2026, a trader made more than $409,000 by betting on political developments in Venezuela.

On March 23, 2026, Kalshi barred candidates from betting on their own elections and prohibited sports insiders from trading related contracts. Polymarket also banned people with confidential information or the ability to influence outcomes from placing bets. On May 22, the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform launched an investigation, saying more than 80 Polymarket users were linked to suspicious trades, and ordered both platforms to provide KYC and monitoring data by June 5.

Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction-market platforms that let users trade contracts based on the outcomes of political, economic and other events. Their cumulative trading volume has surpassed $150 billion, underscoring the sector's emergence as a major fintech segment. Kalshi has taken the lead in the U.S. market with authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Polymarket and Kalshi recorded a combined $21.9 billion in monthly trading volume in April 2026, an all-time high. However, Polymarket's monthly volume fell for the first time since August 2025, allowing Kalshi to overtake it in scale. Polymarket has also partnered with Chainalysis to strengthen compliance as it continues seeking to reopen trading to U.S. users.

Polymarket uses blockchain to settle event contracts, while Kalshi is an exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Both allow investors to trade on election, economic and sports outcomes. The companies were valued at $9 billion and $11 billion, respectively, at the end of 2025, making them key indicators of whether prediction markets can enter mainstream finance.

The Wall Street Journal reported on March 7 that Polymarket and Kalshi were each in talks to raise funds at valuations of about $20 billion. Their paths subsequently diverged. On May 7, Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series F round led by Coatue at a $22 billion valuation. Polymarket, meanwhile, was reported on April 20 to be seeking $400 million at a $15 billion valuation.

Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to wager on political and military outcomes through event contracts. Kalshi is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Polymarket primarily settles transactions on-chain. The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had implications for the country’s leadership and oil prices, but it also intensified regulatory scrutiny over whether such markets effectively enable trading on assassinations and allow insiders to profit from war.

After Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, more than $54 million in Kalshi contracts on whether he would leave office were frozen because of ambiguous terms. In early March, Kalshi decided to reimburse users for their net losses at a cost of about $2.2 million. Comparable contracts on Polymarket recorded more than $58 million in trading. On April 6, seven members of the U.S. House of Representatives wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, seeking by April 15 an explanation of the agency’s enforcement of insider-trading rules and contracts tied to war.

Crypto prediction market Polymarket allows users to bet on events including wars, with outcomes determined using official records and reporting from credible media outlets. More than $17 million was wagered on whether Iran would attack Israel on March 10, underscoring how large financial stakes could distort sensitive information from conflict zones.

Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported on March 10, 2026, that a missile had landed near Beit Shemesh. Users who had bet “no” then demanded that he change the report; one said he stood to lose $900,000 and issued a death threat. After the incident came to light on March 17, Polymarket said it had blocked and reported the accounts involved.