Polymarket’s ‘Jesus Returns Before 2027’ Bet Tops $55 Million in Volume, Stirring Settlement and Returns Debate

Polymarket is a prediction market where participants use crypto assets to trade “yes” or “no” contracts on event outcomes. Its market on whether Jesus will return before January 1, 2027, concerns a religious event with no objectively verifiable standard for determining the outcome. That has drawn particular scrutiny to its high trading volume and settlement rules.

At the time of the report, cumulative trading volume in the market had surpassed $55 million, with prices reflecting an implied probability of about 96% for “no.” Because the contract is due to be resolved before 2027, some investors view buying “no” as a fixed-income strategy offering an annualized return of about 5.5%. Large positions, however, also amplify settlement disputes and the risk associated with the platform’s ruling.