Circle Shares Climb with Middle East Tensions and Oil Prices as Mizuho Raises Target to $100
Circle (CRCL), the issuer of U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC, holds most of its reserves in interest-bearing assets such as U.S. Treasuries, so elevated interest rates generally support its interest income. Rising Middle East tensions have recently pushed oil prices higher, and the resulting inflationary pressure could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, prompting investors to reassess Circle's earnings outlook and valuation. Circle could continue to benefit from reserve income if interest rates remain high, though its operating performance is still closely tied to USDC circulation and the path of interest rates.
During the week through July 19, 2026, Circle shares surged about 20%, with the rally linked to the Middle East conflict, higher oil prices and shifts in trader positioning. Mizuho said rising energy prices could fuel inflation and reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, supporting Circle's interest income from its reserves. The bank therefore raised its price target for Circle to $100 a share from $90. The stock, however, had already traded above the new target, increasing the risk of further volatility.
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The history behind this eventMizuho Downgrades Circle, Cuts Price Target to $50
Stablecoin issuer Circle holds an important position in the crypto market through its compliant USDC token. However, the emerging stablecoin OpenUSD has entered the market with a yield-sharing model that distributes interest directly to holders, disrupting the traditional mechanism under which issuers retain all reserve income. The competition is squeezing Circle’s profit potential and challenging its revenue-sharing arrangement with Coinbase.
Japanese investment bank Mizuho downgraded Circle to underperform and cut its price target to $50 on July 15, 2026. Mizuho warned that competition from OpenUSD and the upcoming renewal of Circle’s revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase would severely compress margins. JPMorgan also turned bearish on Circle the same day, saying rivals were eroding USDC’s market share and placing the company under heavy pressure from both valuation concerns.
Circle Beats Fourth-Quarter Estimates, Shares Surge 15% Premarket
Circle issues the U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin USDC and earns most of its revenue from interest generated by the reserve assets backing the token. As stablecoins increasingly enter payments and financial markets, Circle’s profitability has become a key gauge of USDC adoption and the digital-asset industry’s development.
Circle reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43 for the fourth quarter of 2025, above Wall Street’s estimate of $0.35 and about 23% ahead of expectations. Investors bet that stablecoin demand would continue to grow after the results, sending Circle shares up more than 15% at one point in U.S. premarket trading.
Circle Shares Defy Market Selloff as Stablecoins Gain Ground in Traditional Finance
Circle issues USDC, which is pegged one-to-one to the US dollar, and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. With interest rates remaining elevated and tokenized markets expanding, its role is shifting from a crypto trading tool to payment and settlement infrastructure. Clear Street said the value of tokenized assets grew from about $1.5 billion in early 2023 to roughly $26.5 billion in March 2026.
As of March 16, 2026, Circle shares had risen more than 100% over one month. The stock gained 8% that day to $124.37 and was up about 49% year to date, while Bernstein had set a $190 price target. A March 13 report said Aon was piloting stablecoin premium payments with Coinbase and Paxos, while Wells Fargo had filed a trademark application for “WFUSD” covering trading, payments, wallets and custody.
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