Circle Beats Fourth-Quarter Estimates, Shares Surge 15% Premarket

Circle, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, 2025, issues USDC and earns most of its revenue from interest on the stablecoin’s reserve assets. The company’s outlook is therefore closely tied to USDC supply and usage. As dollar-backed tokens gain traction in trading, payments and cross-border settlement, USDC’s ability to compete with Tether’s USDT has become a key measure of Circle’s growth potential.

Bernstein said Circle’s expansion can continue even if the U.S. CLARITY Act, a broader crypto market-structure bill, remains stalled. The research firm pointed to a rebound in USDC supply and said the token’s share of stablecoin transaction volume had surpassed USDT for the first time, signaling a new growth cycle. Bernstein set a $140 price target for Circle, implying about 59% upside from the stock’s level when the report was issued.

Circle issues USDC, one of the world’s largest dollar-backed stablecoins, and earns much of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. Its results are closely watched as stablecoins move deeper into payments and capital markets. Circle is also expanding beyond token issuance through Arc, its Layer 1 blockchain, and a payments network designed to connect financial institutions with blockchain-based settlement infrastructure.

Circle reported second-quarter revenue of $701 million on Aug. 5, slightly below Wall Street estimates, while adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations and lifted the stock about 10% in premarket trading. USDC circulation increased 19% to $73.3 billion during the quarter, while on-chain transaction volume surged 151%. The company also named BlackRock and Depository Trust & Clearing Corp., or DTCC, among Arc’s validators, highlighting growing institutional support for the network.

Circle issues USDC, the world’s second-largest U.S. dollar stablecoin, and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserves held in cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries. Growth in USDC circulation therefore directly boosts revenue. Circle is developing Arc as an L1 network for payments, foreign exchange and AI-agent micropayments, a key test of whether it can evolve from an interest-driven business into a network platform.

Circle reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million on February 25, 2026, up 77% from a year earlier, and net income of $133 million. Its shares jumped more than 20% intraday. On May 11, it also announced a $222 million presale of the ARC token at a $3 billion valuation. A beta version of the Arc mainnet is scheduled to launch later in the year, with Agent Stack and micropayments targeting AI-agent transactions.

Circle issues the US dollar stablecoin USDC and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. USDC can support cross-border payments and is also suited to low-value, high-frequency microtransactions between AI agents. Bernstein therefore expects stablecoins to evolve from crypto trading instruments into financial infrastructure for the internet, with Circle's growth depending on greater circulation and broader use cases.

Bernstein reiterated its “outperform” rating on Circle and its $190 price target on March 10, 2026. The target was about 70% above the March 9 closing price of $111.84, after the shares had earlier risen 9.74% that day. On March 25, Bernstein said the market had misread the CLARITY Act: its restrictions primarily targeted yield payments by distributors such as Coinbase, not Circle's interest income from USDC reserves.

Circle issues USDC, which is pegged one-to-one to the US dollar, and earns most of its revenue from interest on reserve assets. With interest rates remaining elevated and tokenized markets expanding, its role is shifting from a crypto trading tool to payment and settlement infrastructure. Clear Street said the value of tokenized assets grew from about $1.5 billion in early 2023 to roughly $26.5 billion in March 2026.

As of March 16, 2026, Circle shares had risen more than 100% over one month. The stock gained 8% that day to $124.37 and was up about 49% year to date, while Bernstein had set a $190 price target. A March 13 report said Aon was piloting stablecoin premium payments with Coinbase and Paxos, while Wells Fargo had filed a trademark application for “WFUSD” covering trading, payments, wallets and custody.

Circle (CRCL), the issuer of U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC, holds most of its reserves in interest-bearing assets such as U.S. Treasuries, so elevated interest rates generally support its interest income. Rising Middle East tensions have recently pushed oil prices higher, and the resulting inflationary pressure could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, prompting investors to reassess Circle's earnings outlook and valuation. Circle could continue to benefit from reserve income if interest rates remain high, though its operating performance is still closely tied to USDC circulation and the path of interest rates.

During the week through July 19, 2026, Circle shares surged about 20%, with the rally linked to the Middle East conflict, higher oil prices and shifts in trader positioning. Mizuho said rising energy prices could fuel inflation and reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed rate cuts, supporting Circle's interest income from its reserves. The bank therefore raised its price target for Circle to $100 a share from $90. The stock, however, had already traded above the new target, increasing the risk of further volatility.

Circle issues the U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC, which briefly lost its peg during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. As stablecoins increasingly become core tools for cross-border payments and onchain finance, Circle is evolving from a single-product issuer into a financial infrastructure provider spanning payments, settlement and blockchain networks.

Circle’s 2025 results showed that year-end USDC circulation rose 72% from a year earlier to $75.3 billion, helping lift full-year total revenue by 64% to $2.7 billion. Quarterly transaction volume approached $12 trillion, up 247% year over year. The testnet for its Arc blockchain is progressing smoothly, with the mainnet expected to launch in 2026.

Circle issues the U.S. dollar stablecoin USDC and derives most of its revenue from income on the cash and U.S. Treasury reserves backing the token. The company went public in June 2025. USDC’s rapid expansion has made Circle’s results an important gauge of stablecoin adoption and the company’s sensitivity to interest rates.

Circle reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $770 million, beating market expectations. USDC in circulation exceeded $75 billion at year-end, up 72% from a year earlier. Although IPO-related stock-based compensation pushed the company to an annual loss, its shares initially rose more than 20% after the results, with the gain later approaching 50%. Bernstein also reiterated its $190 price target.