60% of Polymarket World Cup Bettors Are First-Time Crypto Users

The 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, also served as a large-scale test of crypto-based prediction markets. Polymarket lets traders buy and sell contracts tied to match outcomes, with prices acting as market-implied probabilities. The tournament’s global reach, heavy betting interest and transparent wallet data made the platform a useful case study in whether crowd forecasts translated into profits — and how evenly those gains were shared.

By the tournament’s conclusion on July 19, 2026, more than $474 million had been wagered before matches on Polymarket. The contracts posted an aggregate hit rate of 62.97% and about $28.88 million in net profit. Returns were sharply concentrated, however: the 10 most profitable accounts captured more than half of total gains, while one wallet earned $8.25 million from just two matches. The figures suggest a small number of large winning positions substantially lifted the market’s average performance.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is jointly hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico and has expanded to 48 teams for the first time. Blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket allows users to trade on the probability of match outcomes. Its trading activity reflects the market's collective expectations and underscores the accelerating adoption of Web3 applications at major sporting events.

The World Cup formally kicked off on June 11, 2026, with host nation Mexico facing South Africa in the opening match. Cumulative trading volume for the game on Polymarket quickly exceeded $11 million, while live market odds put Mexico's probability of victory above 70%. Large amounts of onchain capital were concentrated on bets backing the host nation early in the match.