US Bill Would Bar President and Members of Congress From Prediction Markets

Congress does not currently explicitly prohibit lawmakers from betting on elections or public policy through prediction markets. Concerns about conflicts of interest and insider trading have intensified because members of Congress may possess nonpublic policy information. The Senate adopted an internal ban on April 30, 2026, while the House has tied similar restrictions to reforms governing lawmakers’ stock trading.

Bryan Steil said on June 4, 2026, that he planned to add prediction-market restrictions to the stock-trading ban in H.R. 7008 and bring it to a vote during the summer. He subsequently introduced H.R. 9367 on June 18, and the House Administration Committee approved it 5–4 on June 24. Violations would carry a fine equal to the greater of $2,000 or 10% of the transaction value, along with the forfeiture of net profits. The bill still awaits a vote by the full House.

US prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), with platforms allowing traders to wager on event outcomes through contracts. Senator Adam Schiff argues that contracts tied to war, assassinations, terrorist attacks or deaths could encourage people with inside knowledge to profit from classified information, creating risks to national security and market integrity.

Schiff has introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would prohibit CFTC-regulated platforms from listing contracts tied to such events. Reports did not disclose the proposal's exact filing date, bill number or monetary threshold. The measure remains at the proposal stage in the Senate and would need to clear committee review and a congressional vote before it could become federal law.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates event-contract markets such as Kalshi. The Commodity Exchange Act currently allows the agency to block contracts involving war, terrorism or assassination on public-interest grounds, but any ban remains at the regulator's discretion. The controversy centers on the potential use of inside information about military operations. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said regulated platforms had already prohibited war markets and that the related wagers were placed on offshore platform Polymarket.

On February 28, Representative Mike Levin said a Polymarket account placed a wager 71 minutes before news of a U.S. military strike on Iran became public, earning $515,000 in a single day. Senator Chris Murphy said on March 1 that he would pursue legislation as quickly as possible. On March 11, Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would prohibit CFTC-registered exchanges from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and death.