Bitcoin’s $10.5 Billion Monthly Options Expiry Puts Possible End to Bear Market in Focus

Bitcoin options give investors the right to trade the cryptocurrency at preset strike prices, while market makers typically hedge their exposure as spot prices move. Large expiries on derivatives venues such as Deribit can intensify those adjustments, making concentrated strikes and the so-called “max pain” level important reference points for traders assessing where prices may gravitate as contracts approach settlement.

About $6.4 billion of Bitcoin options are due to expire on Friday after the cryptocurrency climbed from roughly $62,000 to $80,000. The advance has carried Bitcoin through several key strike levels, increasing market makers’ exposure and the potential need to rebalance hedges. Heavy positioning near major strikes could amplify short-term price swings before and after settlement, particularly if spot Bitcoin remains close to levels holding substantial open interest.

Bitcoin options expiries often drive short-term volatility because the distribution of strike prices affects profits, losses and hedging activity across bullish and bearish positions. Deribit is the dominant platform for this settlement, while CME positioning suggests traditional institutional investors remain cautious about Bitcoin's near-term price outlook. Macroeconomic headwinds could also intensify selling pressure.

About $10.5 billion in monthly Bitcoin options are due to expire on June 28, 2024. Data show that bears hold the advantage under all three main price scenarios. Bulls would need to push Bitcoin about 9% higher to potentially turn the situation around; otherwise, a large volume of call options could expire worthless at settlement.

Bitcoin options reflect traders’ bets on future prices, with strike prices and open interest often used to gauge market direction. Bulls have set a year-end target of $115,000, but whether those positions turn profitable will also depend on the spot price continuing to rise through the end of December.

The latest market data show about $6 billion in open Bitcoin options contracts, with bulls primarily targeting $115,000 by the end of December. Put options, however, still carry a premium of about 9%, indicating that professional traders remain willing to pay more for protection against a pullback despite their bullish bias.

Bitcoin has not posted an equally strong 28-day return since April 2025. The price has now reclaimed a key trend line, while a market sentiment index has risen to a three-month high. The move is significant because spot buying and derivatives capital are returning in tandem, suggesting the rally is not being driven solely by a short-term squeeze.

Bitcoin climbed as high as $79,472 on Wednesday, approaching the $80,000 threshold and setting a new monthly high. Market data showed simultaneous increases in BTC derivatives open interest and a positioning index, indicating an influx of fresh capital. With the price holding above $77,000, traders continued to add bullish positions.

Bitcoin has rebounded to $78,000, supported by continued accumulation among institutional investors and steady inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. Whether the rally can continue will hinge on whether spot buying can further strengthen confidence in the near-term upside.

The latest market data show Bitcoin has retaken $78,000, but Deribit options pricing implies only about a 25% chance that BTC will top $84,000 by the end of May. Despite the stronger spot price, derivatives traders have yet to make substantial bets on further near-term gains, reflecting a relatively cautious market stance.