Grayscale Assesses High-Rate Impact on Crypto: Bitcoin Pressure and an RWA Boom

Bitcoin and gold are both non-yielding assets, and higher real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding them. Grayscale says high rates weigh on Bitcoin but widen the yield gap between traditional finance and DeFi. That is accelerating the tokenization of real-world assets such as bonds and benefiting stablecoin issuers including Circle, which holds U.S. Treasury reserves.

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said on May 14, 2026, that markets had pushed expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut back to September 2027. USDC lending rates on Aave were about 3.6%, below the roughly 4.5% yield on short-term corporate bonds, while every 0.25-percentage-point increase in short-term rates was estimated to add $190 million to Circle’s annual revenue. On June 23, he added that U.S. stocks had risen 9% since late February while Bitcoin had fallen 1%. Bitcoin could stage a catch-up rally if the Fed leaves rates unchanged through year-end.