Atlas Capital CEO Warns Bitcoin Could Fall 70% in Six Months, Still Eyes $500,000 Long Term

After a prolonged period of sharp volatility in crypto markets, turning points in Bitcoin's bull and bear cycles remain a key focus for investors and financial institutions worldwide. Accurately gauging when a bear market is nearing its end is critical to capital flows across digital assets and directly affects when investors reposition and how much risk they are willing to take. Analysts' assessments of the market cycle therefore serve as important benchmarks in finance and technology.

Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at financial research firm Real Vision, said in a recent report that Bitcoin's downward momentum has begun to ease, suggesting the market may be entering the latter half of the bear cycle. Although current technical indicators and trends remain bearish, he explicitly forecast that Bitcoin could recover and reach $250,000 within the next two to three years as downward pressure subsides.

Bitcoin has long been viewed as “digital gold,” competing with gold and other global stores of value. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, including Bitwise’s product, on January 10, 2024, giving pension funds, asset managers and other institutions access to Bitcoin through regulated investment vehicles and broadening its potential funding base.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently said Bitcoin could surpass $1 million within the next 10 years if it captures about 17% of the global store-of-value market. He said institutional investors continued to hold even when Bitcoin fell 50%, while professional investors are gradually increasing portfolio allocations as volatility declines.

Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen about 80% to 85% from its peaks during bull-bear cycles. After reaching $69,000 in 2021, it later sank as low as $15,600. ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes growing institutional adoption and maturing market infrastructure have transformed Bitcoin from an emerging technology into a mature asset class and monetary system, reducing the risk of extreme crashes.

On April 1, 2026, Wood told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that even a 50% decline from Bitcoin’s peak would be an improvement over its previous crashes of 85% to 95%. Glassnode said Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown from its October 2025 high of $126,200 was 52%. The projected 2026 bottom of $34,000 came from analyst Tony Severino, not Wood.

Bitcoin's realized price reflects the market-wide cost basis of holders and is often viewed as support during bear markets. Onchain analytics platform Alphractal uses its 720-day Tactical Bull Bear Index, or TBBI, to track cycles of fear and greed. Founder Joao Wedson said a reading below 20 indicated the market was in the final stage of extreme fear, though one last shakeout could still occur before a recovery.

Cointelegraph reported on April 7, 2026, that Wedson expected BTC could plunge by about $15,000 over the next five to six months, a decline of roughly 20%, to $54,000—near the realized price calculated by Glassnode. After the TBBI reached a similarly low level in 2022, BTC still fell more than 20%; during the comparable period in 2018, it dropped about 50%.