Samsung Reportedly Eyes Another 20% DRAM Price Hike in Third Quarter as AI Crowds Out Capacity

The boom in AI accelerators has turned high-bandwidth memory into the memory industry's priority product. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron are steering constrained wafer capacity toward HBM, which consumes more manufacturing capacity per bit than conventional DRAM. That shift leaves fewer chips for PCs, smartphones and general-purpose servers, making the price surge more than a cyclical rebound and raising the risk that expensive memory will weigh on device demand and data-center budgets.

On Aug. 26, South Korea's Trade Statistics Promotion Institute said the DRAM export unit price for Aug. 1-20 reached $92,183 per kilogram, up 401% from a year earlier and 12.5 times the January 2023 trough of about $7,400. One kilogram was worth the equivalent of 620 grams of gold. TrendForce expects HBM to absorb 30% of the top three suppliers' DRAM wafer input by end-2027, while Goldman Sachs forecasts the DRAM supply deficit will widen to 5.9% in 2027 from 5.0% in 2026.

Rapid growth in AI infrastructure is driving demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron have consequently shifted production resources toward advanced processes, squeezing supplies from mature nodes. The consumer DRAM shortage has now spread to DDR2, affecting costs and shipment plans for low-end consumer electronics and industrial control equipment.

To maintain shipments amid tight supplies, brand manufacturers and original design manufacturers have begun downgrading specifications on some products and switching to older-generation memory. That move has further increased DDR2 demand. The market expects third-quarter DDR2 contract prices to rise another 35% to 40% from the second quarter. With little new capacity for mature processes likely in the near term, the increase could continue into subsequent quarters.