Prediction Markets Raise Odds of Surprise Fed Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to meet July 28-29, with investors largely expecting the Fed to leave its 3.50%-3.75% target range unchanged. A hike would raise borrowing costs and could weigh on spending, investment and risk assets including Bitcoin and technology shares. That makes the sharp repricing on crypto prediction platforms significant: it signals that traders are paying more to hedge an outcome still viewed as a surprise after the Fed held rates steady in June.

On July 27, Polymarket’s implied probability of no change fell 8.9 percentage points in 24 hours to 73.25%, while odds of a 25-basis-point increase rose 9.7 points to 26.65%. The market had $100.83 million in total volume and $5.78 million over the latest day. Myriad showed a similar split, with 27% odds of an increase, while fed-funds futures put the chance at 37.6% Monday afternoon. The Fed will announce its decision at 2 p.m. Eastern time on July 29.