Bitcoin Trails U.S. Stocks for Six Straight Months as Analysts Weigh Rebound Prospects

Bitcoin rebounded after the crypto market’s deleveraging in 2022, but its price remains sensitive to capital flows and technical support levels. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB assesses market cycles using realized price and the 200-week moving average. Investors often use these indicators to gauge whether a bear market has bottomed, drawing attention to the latest warning.

Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June and ended the month at $58,526, marking its worst June performance since June 2022. PlanB said the price remained above realized price but was below the 200-week moving average, suggesting a bottom might not yet have formed. Bitcoin could fall further to $52,000, the analyst warned.

Institutional fund flows have become a key gauge of Bitcoin prices since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Continued net outflows from the ETFs, weak on-chain activity and a shift in capital toward AI-related stocks are now putting Bitcoin under renewed pressure from both insufficient demand and weakening market confidence.

Bitcoin fell about 22% in the first quarter of 2026 and another roughly 14% in the second, marking only the third time in its history that it has posted losses in both quarters of the first half. With the third quarter under way in July, analysts are watching whether $40,000 can provide crucial support. A break below that level could trigger a deeper second-half pullback and extend its rare losing streak.

Bitcoin is often viewed as a leading indicator of global risk appetite because it trades around the clock, is highly liquid and is sensitive to interest rates and market sentiment. Historical trends show that Bitcoin has peaked ahead of the S&P 500 several times. Its fall toward $60,000 in early 2026 was therefore more than a cryptocurrency correction; it also sent a warning to global equity markets.

Bitcoin tumbled to about $60,000 in early 2026, followed by corrections in the S&P 500 and global risk assets, consistent with the crypto market’s tendency to reflect capital outflows first. Recent reports suggest the market still needs a reset before the next bull run, including reducing excessive leverage, weeding out speculative projects and rebuilding capital and investor confidence.

Bitcoin has long been viewed by some investors as inflation-resistant “digital gold,” but its recent performance has more closely resembled that of a volatile risk asset. Its price has moved closely in line with software-stock benchmarks such as the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), suggesting that selling pressure in U.S. technology shares and private equity markets is spilling into cryptocurrencies.

During U.S. trading on Monday, July 13, Bitcoin briefly rebounded above $65,000, but the rally failed to hold. It retreated to about $65,400 as the broader stock market and software shares declined. Polymarket showed the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 had risen to 72%, reflecting weakening confidence among holders and increased downside risk.