Bitcoin Posts Rare Back-to-Back Quarterly Losses, Faces Historic Second-Half Pullback Test

Bitcoin rebounded after the crypto market’s deleveraging in 2022, but its price remains sensitive to capital flows and technical support levels. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB assesses market cycles using realized price and the 200-week moving average. Investors often use these indicators to gauge whether a bear market has bottomed, drawing attention to the latest warning.

Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June and ended the month at $58,526, marking its worst June performance since June 2022. PlanB said the price remained above realized price but was below the 200-week moving average, suggesting a bottom might not yet have formed. Bitcoin could fall further to $52,000, the analyst warned.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs and other ETPs have been important channels for institutional capital entering the crypto market over the past year, and their flows often influence prices. Bitcoin has now fallen below $60,000 amid a stronger U.S. dollar, a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and market leverage that has yet to be fully flushed out. Annual flows turning negative signal waning institutional allocation momentum and suggest the market could face a deeper correction.

On June 26, 2026, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said Bitcoin could first fall to $55,000, about 8% below $60,000. K33 Research data showed that, as of June 18, rolling one-year flows stood at negative 1,176 BTC, the first negative reading since November 2023. Global ETP holdings totaled 1,466,029 BTC, down 127,774 BTC, or 8%, from their peak.

Bitcoin came under pressure in early 2026 from liquidations of highly leveraged positions, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and selling by miners, with losses deepening in February. Crypto assets and riskier investments such as U.S. stocks have declined in tandem, pushing market sentiment into extreme fear. Analysts also view BTC as having entered a technical bear market.

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 in February 2026 and briefly traded near $62,500, marking its lowest level of the year, while a weekly rebound quickly faded. Spot cumulative volume delta showed intensifying selling pressure. Market analysts identified $60,000 as key support; a break below that level could send the cryptocurrency into the $56,000–$60,000 range in the short term.

Bitcoin has long been viewed as both “digital gold” and a high-risk growth asset, and is often compared with the S&P 500, compiled by S&P Dow Jones Indices. Its continued underperformance against U.S. stocks reflects a shift in investor preferences and has renewed debate over its role as a hedge, its place in portfolios and the conditions needed for a rebound.

As of March 31, 2026, Bitcoin had fallen 22% in the first quarter and trailed the S&P 500 for six consecutive months, marking its longest stretch of underperformance. Some reports put the period at 142 days. Analyst Mark Connors said earlier deleveraging had improved the market structure, but the outlook still depended on geopolitical risks and developments in energy markets.

Bitcoin is attempting to extend its bull run in 2026, but the $70,000–$75,000 range has emerged as key resistance. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were once an important gateway for institutional inflows, but demand has weakened. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have also increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, eroding momentum for further gains.

The latest data show that inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have plateaued so far in 2026, with no clear rotation of institutional capital. Bitcoin has repeatedly tested the $70,000–$75,000 resistance zone but has struggled to break through decisively and hold above it. Its long-term uptrend remains under pressure as ETF buying has yet to recover and Treasury yields remain elevated.