Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Fall Further After Worst June Since 2022

Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its peak this cycle and is now trading near $64,000 as the market weighs whether the prolonged correction has ended. The cycle bottom is critical to entry timing and risk allocation, but Standard Chartered and Galaxy Research remain sharply divided in their readings of price action and market indicators.

Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin hit its cycle bottom in June 2026 and that the area around $64,000 could provide support. Galaxy Research and other institutions said market signals have yet to reset fully, with deleveraging still incomplete and investor sentiment not sufficiently cooled. They therefore see a risk of further price declines.

Institutional fund flows have become a key gauge of Bitcoin prices since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Continued net outflows from the ETFs, weak on-chain activity and a shift in capital toward AI-related stocks are now putting Bitcoin under renewed pressure from both insufficient demand and weakening market confidence.

Bitcoin fell about 22% in the first quarter of 2026 and another roughly 14% in the second, marking only the third time in its history that it has posted losses in both quarters of the first half. With the third quarter under way in July, analysts are watching whether $40,000 can provide crucial support. A break below that level could trigger a deeper second-half pullback and extend its rare losing streak.

Bitcoin came under pressure in early 2026 from liquidations of highly leveraged positions, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and selling by miners, with losses deepening in February. Crypto assets and riskier investments such as U.S. stocks have declined in tandem, pushing market sentiment into extreme fear. Analysts also view BTC as having entered a technical bear market.

Bitcoin fell below $63,000 in February 2026 and briefly traded near $62,500, marking its lowest level of the year, while a weekly rebound quickly faded. Spot cumulative volume delta showed intensifying selling pressure. Market analysts identified $60,000 as key support; a break below that level could send the cryptocurrency into the $56,000–$60,000 range in the short term.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

Bitcoin initially rebounded from its 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) during the 2022 bear market before breaking below the long-term support level. The moving average has therefore become an important dividing line for gauging whether the bear market is deepening. Analyst Rekt Capital believes the 2026 price structure is following almost the same pattern. If Bitcoin first forms a lower high and then loses the level on a retest, the broader downtrend could continue.

TradingView data showed Bitcoin fell to $65,362 on Bitstamp on June 3, its lowest level since early April. Rekt Capital put the 50-month EMA at $66,628. Trader Leviathan identified $60,000 as a critical line of defense, while Killa said Bitcoin could consolidate between $63,000 and $65,000 in the coming weeks, with a break below that range potentially deepening the decline.

Bitcoin has historically shown clear seasonality, with traders often using the “sell in May and go away” adage to assess risk-asset performance. Historical data show that when Bitcoin ends May lower, its average return in June is negative 10.1%. Although the pattern is not inevitable, it could still influence asset allocation and near-term market sentiment.

Bitcoin’s latest price action shows it falling about 10% from a May high of $83,000, turning its monthly performance negative. As June begins, traders are watching the historical tendency for Bitcoin to fall by an average of another 10.1% in the month after a May decline. Price pressure could persist if that move is repeated, though a historical average is not a forecast of actual performance.

The 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have become an important gateway for institutional capital entering the crypto market, and their flows are also viewed as an indicator of price support. ETF redemptions, aggressive selling in spot and futures markets, and demand for options hedges are now rising in tandem, suggesting the correction may be more than a pullback after a rally.

Bitcoin fell about 6% from $82,000 to $76,800 and dropped below $77,000 again on May 22. SoSoValue data showed that the 11 ETFs had recorded more than $1.5 billion in outflows since May 7, including $648 million on May 18 alone. Glassnode said spot cumulative volume delta, or CVD, had fallen to negative $126.2 million, with key support at $74,000–$76,000.

Bitcoin cycle bottoms typically require confirmation across several on-chain and derivatives indicators. Realized cap reflects holders' cost basis, RHODL measures the balance between long- and short-term holders, and funding rates capture sentiment in perpetual futures markets. A simultaneous stabilization across all three can therefore provide an important signal.

The latest analysis suggests Bitcoin's selloff to about $60,000 in February may have established a cyclical bottom. Realized cap remained stable at the time, RHODL readings entered a bottoming range and perpetual futures funding rates turned negative. Those signals suggest leveraged long positions were flushed out and that selling pressure may have been released in a concentrated burst.

Bitcoin's realized price reflects the market-wide cost basis of holders and is often viewed as support during bear markets. Onchain analytics platform Alphractal uses its 720-day Tactical Bull Bear Index, or TBBI, to track cycles of fear and greed. Founder Joao Wedson said a reading below 20 indicated the market was in the final stage of extreme fear, though one last shakeout could still occur before a recovery.

Cointelegraph reported on April 7, 2026, that Wedson expected BTC could plunge by about $15,000 over the next five to six months, a decline of roughly 20%, to $54,000—near the realized price calculated by Glassnode. After the TBBI reached a similarly low level in 2022, BTC still fell more than 20%; during the comparable period in 2018, it dropped about 50%.

Bitcoin retreated from its October 2025 peak and ended February 2026 lower for a fifth consecutive month, marking its longest losing streak since the 2018–2019 bear market. eToro senior analyst Mati Greenspan said tariffs, ETF flows and macroeconomic risks were reshaping market pricing, while PrimeXBT reported $3.8 billion in net outflows from spot ETFs over five weeks.

CoinDesk reported on February 28 that BTC was trading at about $64,000, down 52% from its October peak after falling nearly 20% in February. CoinGlass data showed the annualized funding rate for perpetual futures had dropped to minus 6%, a three-month low that increased the potential for a short squeeze. The price briefly touched $65,000 by March 30, with the market watching whether it could reclaim the $68,000–$72,000 resistance zone. Failure to do so could leave March as Bitcoin’s sixth straight losing month.