Grayscale Gives Clients Green Light as Pandl Calls $58,000 Bitcoin Bottom

Bitcoin has historically followed a roughly four-year rhythm tied to halvings, with prices bottoming about a year after a cycle peak and 2.5 years after a halving. Drawdowns have averaged about 80%. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl argues the asset has matured as institutional participation expands, making economic growth, real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy more important than the old cycle template.

In a July 22 report, Pandl said Bitcoin may already have bottomed if the Fed refrains from further rate increases and economic growth holds up. The token rebounded more than 10% from an early-July low of $57,717 to about $65,000, while the traditional model points to a September or October trough near $50,000. K33 said more than half of supply was underwater, and long-term holders reached a record 14.7 million Bitcoin in June.

Asset manager Grayscale assesses Bitcoin’s market cycle by tracking short-term holders’ cost basis and profitability. These buyers are especially prone to creating selling pressure during downturns, making a full recovery in their positions an important gauge of whether the market is shifting from a defensive stance toward greater risk appetite and entering the early stages of a new bull market.

According to reports compiled as of July 20, 2026, Grayscale said Bitcoin’s rebound to $76,000 had brought all short-term buyers back into profit, with signals of the bull market’s first stage beginning to emerge. Its analysis also found that the $65,000–$70,000 range had formed a solid floor and that market sentiment was gradually turning optimistic.