Donald Trump Shifts Stance on Prediction Markets, Says US Cannot Fall Behind

Prediction markets allow users to buy contracts tied to the outcomes of elections, wars and other events, and Polymarket and Kalshi are expanding rapidly. The central dispute is whether these products are financial instruments overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or should be regulated by individual states under gambling laws. Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory roles at both platforms have also raised conflict-of-interest concerns as policy positions evolve.

Trump said at the White House on April 23, 2026, that he did not like prediction markets. Two days later in Florida, he changed course, saying smart people supported them and that the United States could not be “left out” while other countries entered the sector. On May 26, he again argued that the CFTC should retain exclusive jurisdiction. Token Terminal data showed that Polymarket and Kalshi posted a record $23.6 billion in combined trading volume in March.