Polymarket Seeks Japanese Prediction-Market Approval by 2030

Polymarket and Kalshi let users trade event contracts tied to elections, sports and other outcomes, blurring the boundary between derivatives and gambling. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission says the Commodity Exchange Act gives it exclusive federal jurisdiction over contracts listed on registered exchanges. States counter that sports-heavy platforms are effectively unlicensed betting businesses subject to local gambling laws. The dispute carries fiscal stakes: the American Gaming Association estimates states have missed out on more than $1.2 billion in tax revenue since sports event contracts emerged.

On July 27, 2026, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez issued a preliminary injunction blocking Minnesota’s first-in-the-nation prediction-market ban before its scheduled Aug. 1 start. The law would have made operating, hosting or advertising covered markets a felony punishable by up to five years in prison and a $10,000 fine. Menendez found the CFTC, Polymarket and Kalshi were likely to prevail on federal pre-emption claims and faced irreparable harm, leaving the state law suspended while the litigation proceeds.

Polymarket allows users to trade on the probabilities of outcomes in politics, sports and other events. On January 3, 2022, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined the company $1.4 million for offering event-based binary options without registration and ordered it to stop serving US customers. That regulatory history has made compliance and market credibility central to the platform’s return.

A July 8, 2026, report said Polymarket was marketing itself in the United States through TikTok influencers, X and partnerships with Major League Baseball, CNBC and CNN, among others. Its X account had about 1.7 million followers. The company acquired CFTC-licensed exchange QCEX for $112 million in July 2025 and launched a regulated real-money sports prediction app at the end of that year. However, just one month before the report, influencers were found not to have clearly disclosed sponsorships.

Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to wager money on event outcomes, combining information aggregation with gambling-like features. Operators are targeting the vast retail markets of China, Japan and India, but differing legal definitions of gambling, financial products and crypto assets have made regulatory compliance central to their expansion plans.

The latest reports indicate that Polymarket has begun laying the groundwork for an expansion into Japan and plans to lobby the government to allow prediction markets, aiming to secure an operating license by 2030. Despite strict gambling rules in China, Japan and India, the platform is pursuing a strategy similar to that adopted by the crypto industry in its early years: establish a market first, then push for a clear regulatory framework.

Polymarket is a prediction-market platform where participants trade contracts tied to the outcomes of political, economic and other events. The proposed product uses a parlay structure combining multiple outcomes. The regulatory positions of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will influence whether prediction markets can enter the mainstream financial-products ecosystem.

Polymarket has submitted a self-certification filing for “combinatorial outcome contracts” to the CFTC, with a launch expected as early as May 21. The filing did not disclose any trading amount. Meanwhile, SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced a public request for input on new fund products, including event-contract ETFs, signaling that the regulatory debate has expanded beyond individual prediction contracts to fund structures available to retail investors.

Polymarket offers blockchain-based binary event contracts. The CFTC found that it had operated an unregistered derivatives market and, on January 3, 2022, imposed a $1.4 million penalty and ordered it to wind down noncompliant markets. Its main international platform has blocked US users since then. Lifting the ban would allow Polymarket to challenge regulated rival Kalshi in the United States with its full product offering.

Bloomberg reported on April 28 that Polymarket was negotiating with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig to amend the 2022 settlement terms and allow US traders back onto its international platform. The company has spent $112 million to acquire licensed exchange QCEX and launched the regulated Polymarket US in late 2025. It also filed a self-certification with the CFTC for sports parlay contracts on May 20, but reopening the main platform to US users still requires regulatory approval.