SK Group Predicts AI Memory Shortage Will Persist Through 2030 at GTC 2026

Surging demand from generative AI and data centers has made high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, an essential component of AI chips. Its complex manufacturing process and heavy use of production capacity have sharply squeezed output of conventional DRAM. That has made the capacity and investment plans of SK Hynix, the world’s second-largest memory chipmaker, a key barometer for the global semiconductor supply chain and the pace of AI chip shipments by technology giants such as Nvidia.

SK Hynix Chief Executive Kwak Noh-jung warned in July 2026 that the global memory market would face its worst-ever supply shortage in 2027, with tight supply and demand conditions expected to persist through 2030. In response, the company raised $26.5 billion by listing American depositary receipts on Nasdaq on July 13. It has also announced a $4 billion investment in an advanced packaging plant in Indiana as it moves to expand global capacity to address a structural shortage of AI chips.

The expansion of AI server capacity is driving demand for HBM, DRAM and NAND. Servers now account for roughly half of global DRAM demand and about 40% of NAND demand. Goldman Sachs said HBM consumes more wafer capacity, while limited expansion in conventional memory production makes this AI-driven period of shortages and high profitability different from previous cycles.

In a June 1, 2026, report, Goldman Sachs forecast that the DRAM supply deficit would reach 5.9% in 2027 and that shortages would persist through 2028. It raised its 12-month price target for Samsung Electronics to 480,000 won and for SK Hynix to 3.5 million won, retaining “Buy” ratings on both. Its price target for MediaTek was NT$5,000.

The boom in generative AI and data-center construction is driving demand for high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron are shifting resources toward higher-margin products, squeezing supplies of conventional DRAM and NAND. HBM is a critical component in AI accelerators, and shortages could affect server delivery times, electronics costs and the semiconductor industry cycle.

Micron recently reported better-than-expected results, while the market estimates SK hynix’s revenue could reach $54.8 billion. Samsung and SK hynix have said their main memory capacity is fully booked through 2027. The industry estimates that even with manufacturers accelerating HBM capacity expansion, the supply shortfall will still be about 40% at the end of 2027. New capacity may not begin gradually easing the pressure until after 2027 at the earliest.