Bitcoin Supply in Profit Nears ‘True Bear Market’ Levels as 8.2 Million Coins Sit at a Loss

Glassnode estimates holders’ cost basis from the price at which Bitcoin last moved onchain, classifying coins as carrying an unrealized loss when the market price falls below that level. When supply held at a loss overtakes supply in profit and the price approaches its 200-week moving average, it often signals pressure on investors and a change of hands. Such conditions have historically appeared late in bear markets, but do not confirm that a bottom is in.

Glassnode said on July 1 that about 10.83 million Bitcoin were held at a loss, exceeding the 9.22 million still in profit. Bitcoin rebounded to about $61,700 on July 3 but remained below its 200-week moving average of $62,660. K33 found that the market historically bottomed within about 13–101 days after similar signals appeared.

Bitcoin has rebounded from about $71,000 to near $75,000, driven mainly by institutional and macro capital flowing through U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs rather than retail investors chasing the rally. The $76,800 level is also the average on-chain cost basis of recent buyers and capped a rally in January, making it a crucial test of whether ETF demand can absorb selling by long-term holders.

On April 16, 2026, market maker Enflux said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew about $240 million in net inflows in a single day, helping push the price toward $75,000–$76,000. CryptoQuant observed that exchange inflows rose at the same time to about 11,000 BTC per hour, the highest since late December last year. The average deposit reached 2.25 BTC, its highest since mid-2024, indicating that whales were exiting near the $76,800 cost-basis level as the price moved into consolidation.

Bitcoin’s “supply in profit” metric measures the share of circulating BTC whose last-moved price is below the current market price. A reading below 50% means more than half of the supply is carrying an unrealized loss, typically reflecting deep market deleveraging. Glassnode’s historical data show similar levels in March 2020 and early 2023, periods often viewed as cycle-reset signals for gradual accumulation by long-term holders.

In February 2026, Bitcoin’s supply in profit briefly fell below 50%, returning to levels seen during the previous two bear-market corrections. Reports noted that the last time the metric fell to about 50%, Bitcoin subsequently gained as much as 655%. Past performance, however, may not be repeated. The metric only reflects the cost basis of Bitcoin holders and cannot by itself confirm that the price bottomed in February.