More Than Half of Bitcoin Supply at a Loss as Key Metric Signals Historic Bear-Market Bottom

According to K33 Research, more than 50% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply fell into an unrealized loss for the first time when the cryptocurrency’s price dropped to about $61,900 on June 5, 2026. Historically, this has been a classic late-stage bear-market indicator. When most investors are sitting on losses, retail capitulation and a redistribution of holdings among long-term investors typically follow, making the metric an important gauge of whether the crypto market is entering a bottoming phase.

Bitcoin had recovered to about $63,000 as of July 17, 2026, but the share of supply in loss had remained above 50% for 42 days. Historical patterns show that the market typically reaches a macro price bottom within 13–101 days after the metric crosses the halfway mark. The current 42-day stretch is the second longest on record, behind only the 2014 bear market, suggesting Bitcoin is in a critical countdown toward a bottom.

Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.

According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

CryptoQuant’s realized profit-loss ratio measures the relative strength of realized gains and losses among Bitcoin investors. A sharply negative reading indicates that selling at a loss is dominant. Historically, extreme lows have often coincided with the final stages of bear markets or market bottoms, making the ratio an important on-chain gauge of investor capitulation and potential price reversals.

The latest data showed Bitcoin’s realized profit-loss ratio falling to -0.35, its lowest level in 43 months, though the related report did not provide the exact measurement date or Bitcoin’s price at the time. Analysts said the market may be approaching a bottom and that investors could consider building positions gradually at lower levels instead of chasing prices after a recovery. A single on-chain indicator, however, is not enough to confirm that a bottom has formed.

Whether Bitcoin is in loss is typically determined by comparing each BTC's on-chain acquisition cost with its market price. A rise in loss-making supply means more holders face unrealized losses, potentially increasing selling pressure. The reports did not identify the data provider, but long-term holders still control nearly 75% of the circulating supply, suggesting their holdings have yet to loosen significantly.

At the time covered by the reports, Bitcoin fell below $59,100, pushing the supply in loss to a record 10.83 million BTC. The reports did not provide the exact date of the event. Despite the price weakness, long-term holders still controlled close to three-quarters of the supply, with no signs of a large-scale exit.

The “realized price” represents the average on-chain acquisition cost of all bitcoin in circulation, and Glassnode uses it to gauge whether holders overall are sitting on losses. Bitcoin briefly fell below this level before bottoming in 2011, 2015, 2018–2019, March 2020 and the 2022 bear market. The measure is therefore viewed as an important gauge of market capitulation and cyclical lows.

CoinDesk reported on June 23, 2026, that bitcoin was testing its 200-week moving average at about $62,400. If that level fails, the next threshold would be Glassnode’s estimated realized price of $53,457, more than 15% below the level at the time. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an estimated cost basis of about $54,300, and the market could find a bottom in the $50,000–$54,000 range.

K33 Research said the rising share of Bitcoin held by long-term investors indicates that supply is gradually shifting to holders who are less likely to sell, reducing potential selling pressure. Historically, a growing long-term holder share combined with much of the supply trading at a loss has typically emerged in the later stages of bear markets, though it does not mean a price bottom has been confirmed.

K33 Research's latest report showed that long-term holders control a record 79% of Bitcoin's supply. About 50% of the circulating supply is at an unrealized loss, also consistent with patterns seen during previous bear-market bottoms. The report did not specify the data cutoff date and warned that the upcoming FOMC interest-rate decision could trigger volatility because of Bitcoin's strong correlation with the S&P 500.

Bitcoin’s “realized losses” are the cumulative losses incurred when holders sell below their purchase price. The metric is commonly used to gauge bear-market pressure and the extent of investor capitulation. CryptoQuant said cumulative realized losses reached $211 billion during the 2022 bear market, providing a key benchmark for assessing whether the current cycle has bottomed.

As of 2026, cumulative realized losses in the Bitcoin bear market remain about $35 billion below the 2022 total, implying losses of roughly $176 billion. Analysts say the market has yet to show typical bottoming signals and may need several more months to absorb selling pressure. Another wave of capitulation selling could occur before a clearer cyclical low takes shape.

Bitcoin investors incur “realized losses” when they transfer assets to exchanges and sell them below cost, a metric commonly used to gauge market panic and forced deleveraging. Recent on-chain data show that loss-driven selling pressure is gradually fading, offering an important indicator of whether Bitcoin is nearing a short-term bottom and whether spot demand can stabilize.

The latest observations compiled as of July 20, 2026, show Bitcoin’s daily realized losses have fallen 80%, from a peak of about $2 billion to roughly $400 million. The realized profit-to-loss ratio has recovered to 1.4. Although the original information does not identify the data provider or exact measurement date, the indicators suggest the market is shifting from aggressive selling to net buying, with signs of seller exhaustion emerging.

CryptoQuant measures the profitability of Bitcoin supply using on-chain cost bases. A declining share of supply in profit means more holders bought their coins above the current market price. The metric is closing in on its 2022 bear-market low, making it an important gauge of market undervaluation and potential cycle turning points.

According to the latest report, about 8.2 million Bitcoin are carrying unrealized losses, while the share of supply in profit is approaching the “true bear market” range. Analysts say market valuations are clearly under pressure, but the industry has yet to reach a consensus on whether a bottom is near or prices will remain weighed down by global turmoil.