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Polymarket Origins Probe Points to DARPA ‘Terror Futures’ Controversy and Thiel Network

1 reports · First detected 2026-07-02 · Last active 2026-07-02

The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) began developing the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) in 2001. The platform was intended to let traders forecast political developments, military action and casualties from terrorist attacks in eight Middle Eastern countries, but the Pentagon halted it on July 29, 2003, after critics branded it a “terror futures” market. That history raises questions about whether today’s prediction markets carry forward the military’s concept of aggregating intelligence.

An investigation published by Whitney Webb and Mark Goodwin on June 30, 2026, said Coplan was in contact with PAM architect Robin Hanson and Augur founder Joey Krug as early as 2018 and 2019. Krug later led a $45 million funding round in 2024 on behalf of Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund.

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1 original reports
ABMEDIA.IO 2026-07-02
Polymarket 前身竟是 DARPA「恐怖期貨市場」？

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Polymarket Accused of Paying Creators to Film Fake Profit Videos2026-06-23 · 2 reports · similarity 0.80

Polymarket is a prediction market where users trade crypto assets based on the outcomes of events, attracting customers with contracts tied to politics, sports and other topics. A Wall Street Journal investigation said the platform appeared to have paid college content creators to execute sham trades on highly realistic simulation sites, presenting fabricated profits as genuine betting experiences. The allegations raise questions about advertising disclosures and consumer trust.

The investigation found more than 1,000 promotional videos showing fake bets and profits, even though the creators had not assumed the risks claimed in the footage. Polymarket said it would conduct a comprehensive review of the content. During the 2026 World Cup, a “mystery wallet” was also said to have placed highly accurate bets and made NT$24 million in arbitrage profits, renewing scrutiny of whether the platform uses misleading promotions to attract users.

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