Analyst Uses Glassnode Metric to Gauge Bitcoin Bear-Market Bottoming
On-chain data platform Glassnode analyzes Bitcoin’s ownership structure by coin age. The share of coins held for one to three years can indicate the extent to which investors are shifting from short-term trading to long-term holding. An analyst known as Mr. Berg has turned the metric into a bull-and-bear cycle progress bar to assess whether the market is nearing a bear-market bottom.
Mr. Berg recently noted that the share of coins held for one to three years has typically ranged from 0.35 to 0.6 at the end of previous Bitcoin bear markets. The metric is still rising steadily, indicating that coins continue to move into longer-term hands. On that basis, he believes the market has entered the late stages of forming a bear-market bottom, though he has not provided a definitive completion date or a Bitcoin price target.
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The history behind this eventBitcoin Buyer Behavior May Signal 2026 Bear-Market Bottom Is Near
Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.
According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.
Bitcoin Bear-Market Consolidation Could Last Months Before Bottoming, Glassnode Analysis Shows
Glassnode uses onchain data to track the distribution of Bitcoin holdings and believes bear-market bottoms typically become clearer only when long-term holders control at least 85% of the supply. The threshold reflects coins moving from short-term traders to long-term investors and is an important signal for assessing whether selling pressure has been fully absorbed.
As of July 20, 2026, Glassnode’s indicator showed that long-term holders controlled about 80% of the supply, 5 percentage points short of the historical 85% bottoming threshold. The market could therefore remain range-bound for several more months. The related report did not provide Bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price at the time or any other monetary figures.
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