Bitcoin Bear-Market Consolidation Could Last Months Before Bottoming, Glassnode Analysis Shows

Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.

According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has long tracked cryptocurrency capital flows and holders’ cost bases. The market entered a correction after Bitcoin’s previous peak. Key cost-basis levels matter because they serve as psychological dividing lines between bull and bear markets. When prices remain below holders’ average costs for an extended period, the market enters a deep bottom-building phase, providing investors seeking medium- to long-term entry points with a key gauge for whether to buy the dip.

According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report, published in July 2026, Bitcoin has traded below several key cost-basis support levels for five consecutive months, leaving it at a deep discount. Profit-taking by long-term holders and persistently weak institutional demand through spot ETFs have weighed on spot prices, although the derivatives market is showing signs of de-risking. The market will now watch for three major reversal signals, including easing selling pressure and a return of institutional capital.

On-chain data platform Glassnode analyzes Bitcoin’s ownership structure by coin age. The share of coins held for one to three years can indicate the extent to which investors are shifting from short-term trading to long-term holding. An analyst known as Mr. Berg has turned the metric into a bull-and-bear cycle progress bar to assess whether the market is nearing a bear-market bottom.

Mr. Berg recently noted that the share of coins held for one to three years has typically ranged from 0.35 to 0.6 at the end of previous Bitcoin bear markets. The metric is still rising steadily, indicating that coins continue to move into longer-term hands. On that basis, he believes the market has entered the late stages of forming a bear-market bottom, though he has not provided a definitive completion date or a Bitcoin price target.

On-chain data platform Glassnode assesses Bitcoin market cycles using investors’ cost bases and unrealized profits and losses. Its “median holder breakeven level” marks the cost threshold dividing investors in half. A move below that level typically signals mounting market pressure and may indicate that Bitcoin is gradually entering a historically low valuation range.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael most recently said Bitcoin had fallen below the median holder breakeven level. Based on historical cycles and on-chain valuations, he estimated that the market is likely to bottom between $46,000 and $54,000 in the current cycle. He also said drawdowns from the peak have been gradually shrinking with each cycle, while stressing that the projected bottom is not a definitive price target.