Peter Brandt Sees No Bitcoin Record High in 2026, Says Bottom May Not Come Until Q2 2027

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin’s recent strength may prove to be a false breakout, leaving the cryptocurrency exposed to a steep correction toward the $40,000 range. His outlook stands out for combining a specific downside target with a long-dated market-cycle forecast, extending the expected bear-market trough into 2026 and the next potential record high into 2027.

Brandt’s latest projection places Bitcoin’s definitive cycle bottom in early October 2026, after a possible near-term retreat to around $40,000. He expects the market to begin a renewed advance after that low and potentially set an all-time high in 2027. The forecast reflects Brandt’s technical and historical cycle analysis and remains a market scenario rather than a guaranteed price path.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

Bitcoin undergoes a block-reward halving roughly every four years, slowing supply growth in an event markets often view as a key turning point in bull and bear cycles. Veteran trader Peter Brandt assessed the price outlook based on historical halving cycles. He believes the risk of a near-term correction has not passed, though scarcity and long-term adoption trends could support future prices.

Brandt's latest forecast says Bitcoin may not yet have bottomed and could retest $40,000 per coin in an extreme scenario. He remains bullish over the longer term, however, estimating that the price could rise to $250,000 by the end of 2029. The outlook spans a steep near-term pullback and more than sixfold future upside, though investors should bear in mind that cycle models offer no guarantees.

Michael Terpin is an early Bitcoin investor known as the “Crypto Godfather” for his longstanding involvement in the cryptocurrency industry. Whether Bitcoin can return to its previous high is central to assessments of the market cycle. The debate now focuses on whether institutional adoption and inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs can offset further selling pressure.

Terpin's latest forecast says Bitcoin has yet to bottom and could fall to about $57,000 in October 2026, with little chance of surpassing its all-time high this year. He believes the price must first break through a key resistance zone before a renewed bull market can be confirmed. His view contrasts with analysts who are bullish on institutional demand and ETF inflows.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.