Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Sliding Toward $40,000 Before 2026 Bottom

Bitcoin price swings are closely tied to investor holding behavior. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode said realized losses among long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for one to two years are often a key indicator for predicting market cycles when the market reverses. A slowdown in selling pressure from this group can help investors assess when the next bear-market bottom may occur.

According to the latest Glassnode data released in July 2026, investors who bought Bitcoin at $107,000 a year earlier are showing early signs that the 2026 bear-market bottom is approaching. Meanwhile, the average cost basis of short-term speculators has reinforced $69,000 as the next key battleground between Bitcoin bulls and bears.

Bitcoin has gone through several bull and bear cycles since its 2009 launch. The pseudonymous analyst PlanB gained market attention for developing the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, but this time based his outlook on short-term quantitative indicators and the onchain realized price. Realized price reflects holders’ average cost basis and is often viewed as a key threshold for bear-market support and market stress.

As of July 20, 2026, PlanB said Bitcoin had yet to establish a true bottom. His short-term quantitative data indicated a greater than 50% chance that the price would retest the realized price of $53,000 and possibly dip below it briefly. He stressed that this was his personal technical analysis, not an S2F model forecast of Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

Bitcoin is again approaching its 2026 low of $59,000, raising expectations that it could break support and set a fresh low for the year. Because Bitcoin is widely viewed as a gauge of risk appetite in crypto assets, its performance also affects leveraged trading and broader market sentiment.

As of July 20, 2026, traders were broadly betting that Bitcoin could fall to new lows. Onchain data, however, showed that inflows to exchanges from mid-sized investors had dropped to their lowest level since April. Liquidation positions were also heavily concentrated around $59,000, suggesting that selling pressure could ease and prices could rebound after a decline triggers deleveraging.

Bitcoin is closing in on the $60,000 level in a bear market, with large bids and asks on exchange order books potentially becoming targets for a liquidity sweep. CoinGlass data shows that $50,000–$60,000 is the main liquidity cluster. A drop below support followed by a swift rebound could establish the macro bottom for this bear market and catch short sellers off guard.

Cointelegraph cited pseudonymous trader Killa on June 19, 2026, as saying Bitcoin could sweep liquidity below $60,000 in the third quarter, no later than September, without necessarily reaching the $50,000 level widely targeted by the market. Daan Crypto Trades said bulls must defend $61,000–$62,000, while Exitpump observed on June 18 that short-term bearish positioning on Binance was becoming more aggressive.

Bitcoin's supply schedule is shaped by block-reward halvings that occur about once every four years, and markets often use post-halving cycles to estimate shifts between bull and bear markets. CryptoQuant onchain data show that cyclical bottoms in historical price patterns have often occurred between September and November. Whether the current downturn will persist through the end of 2026 has therefore become an important factor in investors' risk assessments.

Several analysts have recently used historical halving cycles and price models to estimate that Bitcoin may not bottom until the fourth quarter of 2026, with October seen as a potential turning point. Forecasts vary by model: more conservative estimates put the bottom at about $40,000–$50,000, while a bearish scenario points to a possible drop to $30,000. The main market consensus centers on $30,000–$45,000.

Bitcoin undergoes a block-reward halving roughly every four years, slowing supply growth in an event markets often view as a key turning point in bull and bear cycles. Veteran trader Peter Brandt assessed the price outlook based on historical halving cycles. He believes the risk of a near-term correction has not passed, though scarcity and long-term adoption trends could support future prices.

Brandt's latest forecast says Bitcoin may not yet have bottomed and could retest $40,000 per coin in an extreme scenario. He remains bullish over the longer term, however, estimating that the price could rise to $250,000 by the end of 2029. The outlook spans a steep near-term pullback and more than sixfold future upside, though investors should bear in mind that cycle models offer no guarantees.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory is often shaped by halving cycles, capital flows and market sentiment, drawing close attention to veteran trader Peter Brandt’s long-term technical analysis. Betting data from prediction market Polymarket can also reflect investors’ collective expectations for specific price levels and time frames.

Brandt’s latest assessment suggests Bitcoin is unlikely to set an all-time high in 2026 and that a market bottom may not arrive until the second quarter of 2027. He nevertheless remains bullish on the longer-term outlook after the bottom forms, with a target that could reach $250,000. Polymarket puts the probability of BTC returning to $120,000 in 2026 at just 15%.

Michael Terpin is an early Bitcoin investor known as the “Crypto Godfather” for his longstanding involvement in the cryptocurrency industry. Whether Bitcoin can return to its previous high is central to assessments of the market cycle. The debate now focuses on whether institutional adoption and inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs can offset further selling pressure.

Terpin's latest forecast says Bitcoin has yet to bottom and could fall to about $57,000 in October 2026, with little chance of surpassing its all-time high this year. He believes the price must first break through a key resistance zone before a renewed bull market can be confirmed. His view contrasts with analysts who are bullish on institutional demand and ETF inflows.

Bitcoin prices often move through bull and bear cycles shaped by halving cycles and market liquidity. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant uses indicators including the MVRV Z-score to measure how far market value has diverged from realized value, helping it assess pressure from investor losses and identify long-term bottom zones.

CryptoQuant's latest analysis estimates that Bitcoin could face another shakeout in the second half of 2026 and hit an “iron bottom” of about $55,000 around December. It describes the current market as the middle of a grueling marathon and says another round of position-clearing is needed before a subsequent rebound can begin.