Bitcoin Seen as Monetary Asset, Undervalued 26% Relative to Gold

Bitcoin and gold are widely treated as hard assets because their supply is constrained, making them potential stores of value when investors worry about currency debasement. Those concerns have intensified as governments carry heavy debt loads and markets consider whether policymakers may tolerate higher inflation to reduce those obligations in real terms. The bitcoin-to-gold ratio offers a gauge of the cryptocurrency’s performance against the traditional haven, rather than against the dollar alone.

In early September 2026, one full bitcoin bought slightly more than 18 ounces of gold, the highest level since January. Both assets have advanced as debt and inflation concerns supported demand for scarce alternatives to sovereign currencies, but bitcoin has risen substantially faster. The move above the 18-ounce threshold shows that the cryptocurrency has gained relative strength even as gold itself has climbed, signaling a more aggressive investor preference for bitcoin within the hard-asset trade.

Bitcoin is often viewed as “digital gold,” and its relative valuation can be measured using ratios that compare Bitcoin’s market capitalization with gold’s market value and the global broad money supply, or M2. Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin infrastructure company Jan3, said these metrics can help gauge whether capital may shift from gold into crypto assets.

Mow’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin is trading at a discount of about 24% to 66% to its fair value based on gold’s market capitalization and global M2. The Z-score for the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has also entered undervalued territory. BTC has typically risen sharply after similar signals in the past, though the report did not provide an exact publication date or price target.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has long viewed gold as a core hedge against sovereign debt and geopolitical risks. He says gold is the world’s second-largest central bank reserve asset after fiat currencies. Bitcoin lacks central bank backing and remains closely correlated with technology stocks, making it difficult to establish as a long-term store of value.

As of July 19, 2026, Dalio had again argued that Bitcoin transactions can be monitored, offer insufficient privacy and face the risk of being compromised by quantum computing. Central banks therefore would not include BTC in their core reserves, he said. Dalio stressed that “there is only one gold,” while cryptocurrency advocates dismissed his arguments as outdated and pointed to Bitcoin’s recent outperformance against gold as a hedge.

Asset manager Bitwise sees bitcoin as both a “digital gold” store of value and a payment instrument for global settlement. As distrust of traditional monetary systems and sovereign credit grows, bitcoin's scarcity, cross-border reach and independence from any single sovereign authority could expand its long-term demand and valuation potential.

According to reports available as of July 20, 2026, a Bitwise executive estimated that bitcoin could be worth as much as $2.3 million per coin if it captures demand for both gold-like wealth storage and global settlement. Bitwise also expects geopolitical shifts and faster integration of AI technology to drive a new wave of innovation in cryptocurrencies, token-based applications and altcoins.

Bitcoin has long been viewed as a scarce but highly volatile alternative asset, though whether it can replace gold as a safe haven remains disputed. Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin compared the performance of Bitcoin, gold and the S&P 500 after global economic or geopolitical crises to examine how investors reallocated capital following such shocks.

Mercado Bitcoin’s latest research found that Bitcoin’s returns tended to exceed those of gold and the S&P 500 in the two months after global shocks. The findings suggest that although Bitcoin may swing sharply immediately after an event, it subsequently tends to rebound more strongly. However, the report did not provide the study’s publication date, crisis sample, amounts invested or the exact returns for the three asset classes, so the findings should be assessed alongside the full methodology.

Bitcoin is often described as “digital gold” because of its capped supply and decentralized nature, while also serving as both a portfolio allocation and a growth-oriented risk asset. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, 2024. The products began trading the next day and generated about $4.6 billion in first-day volume, giving traditional investors easier access to the market.

Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart recently predicted that spot Bitcoin ETFs will eventually surpass gold ETFs in total size, though he gave no specific target or timeline. He said Bitcoin has more varied uses than gold, offering a hedge, diversification and growth exposure. He likened it to “hot sauce” in a portfolio: even a small allocation can add risk and return potential.

Bitcoin is often described as “digital gold.” Both assets are scarce and are used by investors as hedges against currency debasement and macroeconomic risks. Macroeconomist Lyn Alden said markets are currently optimistic about gold but unfairly negative on Bitcoin, underestimating its continuing development as an asset.

In a recent podcast interview, Alden predicted that Bitcoin would outperform gold over the next two to three years. She gave no specific price target or investment amount but emphasized that Bitcoin’s role as digital gold is still maturing. Her forecast hinges on performance over the two to three years following the interview, rather than short-term price fluctuations.

Bitcoin has characteristics of both a hard asset and a high-risk technology asset. Although growth in global M2 supports its long-term trajectory, speculative capital continues to shape the scale of its gains. Fidelity’s head of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, noted that Bitcoin surged alongside software stocks when the latter rose about 58% in 2017–2018 and 93% in 2020–2021. When software stocks fell about 58% in 2022, Bitcoin also declined sharply.

As of February 27, 2026, gold had gained 153% since the start of 2024, while Bitcoin had fallen 30% over the same period. Binance launched round-the-clock gold futures on January 5, with cumulative trading volume closing in on $35 billion, a daily peak of more than $4 billion and a weekly average of $4.7 billion. CryptoQuant said the total value of assets on the exchange had fallen from $140 billion in August 2025 to $102 billion, its lowest since April of that year, signaling an outflow of capital from the platform.