Bitcoin Undervalued Relative to Gold, Analyst Sees Potential Price Rebound

WisdomTree’s digital asset research argues that Bitcoin is evolving from a highly volatile risk asset into a monetary asset capable of competing with gold. Both have scarce supplies, are politically neutral and can serve as stores of value, making their relative valuations increasingly relevant to macro asset allocation.

As of July 20, 2026, WisdomTree’s analysis indicated that Bitcoin was about 26% undervalued relative to gold, suggesting its status as a monetary asset was not yet fully reflected in its price. The report provided no specific transaction value or research publication date, focusing instead on the valuation gap between the two assets.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (BTC/XAU) is often used to gauge the relative strength of capital flows into the two scarce assets. After the ratio bottomed and reversed in 2015, 2019 and 2022, Bitcoin gained about 250%, 140% and 140%, respectively, within a year. The latest rebound is therefore being viewed as a possible sign that Bitcoin has bottomed in US dollar terms.

As of April 30, 2026, BTC/XAU had rebounded about 40% from its February low, while Bitcoin had gained 32.65% against the dollar over the same period. Fidelity Investments also said in an April report that the market had entered an accumulation phase. If Bitcoin repeats its historical average gain of 180%, it could reach $167,250 by April 2027. However, the ratio remains below its 100-month EMA, leaving a technical risk of a 20% pullback.

The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio measures the relative strength of the two scarce assets. GeoMetric said the past three bear markets in the ratio each lasted 12–14 months and produced declines of 75%–84%. The current cycle has fallen 81% over roughly 13 months, putting it near the bottom of its historical cycle. A reversal could therefore shape the pace at which capital rotates from gold into crypto assets.

Cointelegraph cited TradingView data on March 20 showing that the BTC/GOLD weekly RSI had recovered to 33 from 21 in mid-February, while the MACD was nearing a bullish crossover. If Bitcoin holds $68,000–$70,000, it could test $76,000–$80,000. CoinDesk reported on March 25 that the ratio had rebounded 30% from about 12 ounces to nearly 16 ounces.

Bitcoin has characteristics of both a hard asset and a high-risk technology asset. Although growth in global M2 supports its long-term trajectory, speculative capital continues to shape the scale of its gains. Fidelity’s head of global macro, Jurrien Timmer, noted that Bitcoin surged alongside software stocks when the latter rose about 58% in 2017–2018 and 93% in 2020–2021. When software stocks fell about 58% in 2022, Bitcoin also declined sharply.

As of February 27, 2026, gold had gained 153% since the start of 2024, while Bitcoin had fallen 30% over the same period. Binance launched round-the-clock gold futures on January 5, with cumulative trading volume closing in on $35 billion, a daily peak of more than $4 billion and a weekly average of $4.7 billion. CryptoQuant said the total value of assets on the exchange had fallen from $140 billion in August 2025 to $102 billion, its lowest since April of that year, signaling an outflow of capital from the platform.