Golden Boot Odds Shift Ahead of World Cup Quarterfinals

The World Cup Golden Boot goes to the top scorer in a single tournament. If players are tied on goals, FIFA compares assists and then fewer minutes played. Polymarket and Kalshi turn each player’s chances of winning into tradable prices, reflecting market consensus while allowing traders to position around routes to advancement, player form and price differences between platforms. Changes in the scoring table can therefore quickly move the markets.

A July 8, 2026, report showed that Lionel Messi scored once and provided one assist as Argentina came from behind to beat Egypt 3–2. His tally of eight goals moved him ahead of Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland, who had seven each. From July 7 to July 8, Messi’s Golden Boot probability rose from 33.4% to 38.4% on Polymarket and from 31% to 39%–40% on Kalshi. Cumulative trading volume on Polymarket also increased from about $2.09 million on June 4 to $50.4 million on July 8.