World Cup Drives Prediction Markets to 27% of US Sports Betting

Prediction markets allow users to trade event contracts tied to outcomes ranging from elections to sporting contests, putting platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi in increasingly direct competition with traditional bookmakers. The 2026 World Cup has provided a major test of that model, concentrating global attention and trading demand while raising the stakes for licensed US betting operators and regulators overseeing the boundaries between derivatives and gambling.

Prediction-market activity during the 2026 World Cup reached the equivalent of 27% of total legal US sports betting volume, according to the latest data from H2 Gambling Capital. That was three times the 9% share recorded at the start of 2026, with the increase occurring within a month. The figures point to a rapid shift in wagering behavior, though the reports did not disclose an exact dollar value for the trading volume.