Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Lock Up 75% of Supply, Signaling Potential Bear-Market Bottom

Wall Street capital became an important source of incremental BTC demand after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. ETF outflows are now being absorbed by older on-chain wallets, signaling a shift in holdings from price-sensitive institutions to patient capital. The transition is therefore seen as an important indicator of a potential market bottom.

Glassnode said on July 1, 2026, that about 10.83 million BTC were held at an unrealized loss, exceeding the 9.22 million held at a profit. ETFs also recorded their largest monthly net outflow since inception in June. Long-term holders instead added a net 50,000–100,000 BTC, while Bitcoin returned to $60,000 that day and traded at $60,163. Confirmation of a bottom, however, still depends on ETF outflows abating and whales entering the market.

Bitcoin “OGs” generally refers to early investors who have held the cryptocurrency for more than five years, and movements of their coins are often seen as a sign of profit-taking. CryptoQuant tracks these holdings through spent transaction outputs, or STXOs. The bull cycle that began in early 2023 saw the most aggressive selling on record, making the retreat in selling pressure important to the market’s ability to establish structural support.

CryptoQuant data showed that as of June 23, 2026, the 90-day average amount spent by OG holders had fallen to 962 BTC, its lowest since November 2024 and a 19-month low. That was sharply below the May 2024 peak of 3,860 BTC. Using the halving cycle, analyst LP calculated that July 6, 2026, was day 826 and said the window for a market bottom could fall in early September.

K33 Research said the rising share of Bitcoin held by long-term investors indicates that supply is gradually shifting to holders who are less likely to sell, reducing potential selling pressure. Historically, a growing long-term holder share combined with much of the supply trading at a loss has typically emerged in the later stages of bear markets, though it does not mean a price bottom has been confirmed.

K33 Research's latest report showed that long-term holders control a record 79% of Bitcoin's supply. About 50% of the circulating supply is at an unrealized loss, also consistent with patterns seen during previous bear-market bottoms. The report did not specify the data cutoff date and warned that the upcoming FOMC interest-rate decision could trigger volatility because of Bitcoin's strong correlation with the S&P 500.

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, and continued accumulation by long-term holders reduces the amount available for trading on exchanges. Stockpiling strategies led by major institutions such as MicroStrategy have therefore become an important gauge of market liquidity and potential supply-demand imbalances.

Since the end of 2025, the cohort known as “conviction buyers” has expanded by 300% and now holds about 4 million BTC, nearly 20% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply. About 70% of recent entrants have unrealized gains. Analysts warned that if demand accelerates, declining liquid supply on exchanges could amplify price swings and trigger a supply shock.