Record 79% Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Share Signals Bear Market May Be Nearing Bottom, K33 Says

Glassnode estimates holders’ cost basis from the price at which Bitcoin last moved onchain, classifying coins as carrying an unrealized loss when the market price falls below that level. When supply held at a loss overtakes supply in profit and the price approaches its 200-week moving average, it often signals pressure on investors and a change of hands. Such conditions have historically appeared late in bear markets, but do not confirm that a bottom is in.

Glassnode said on July 1 that about 10.83 million Bitcoin were held at a loss, exceeding the 9.22 million still in profit. Bitcoin rebounded to about $61,700 on July 3 but remained below its 200-week moving average of $62,660. K33 found that the market historically bottomed within about 13–101 days after similar signals appeared.

Swan Bitcoin is a financial-services company focused on Bitcoin, and CEO Cory Klippsten has closely tracked changes in ownership patterns. Since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in April 2024, the market has been watching for signs of a cyclical bottom. Rising supply held by long-term investors typically indicates that coins are moving to higher-conviction holders who trade less frequently.

Klippsten said in a recent report that long-term investors now hold a record 14.7 million Bitcoin, equivalent to about 70% of its 21 million maximum supply. He said this suggests veteran holders have not exited in large numbers amid volatility. Selling pressure could therefore be absorbed faster than in previous cycles, potentially allowing the crypto market to bottom earlier this time. The view remains a market estimate, however, and does not confirm that prices have reached a bottom.

Bitcoin “OGs” generally refers to early investors who have held the cryptocurrency for more than five years, and movements of their coins are often seen as a sign of profit-taking. CryptoQuant tracks these holdings through spent transaction outputs, or STXOs. The bull cycle that began in early 2023 saw the most aggressive selling on record, making the retreat in selling pressure important to the market’s ability to establish structural support.

CryptoQuant data showed that as of June 23, 2026, the 90-day average amount spent by OG holders had fallen to 962 BTC, its lowest since November 2024 and a 19-month low. That was sharply below the May 2024 peak of 3,860 BTC. Using the halving cycle, analyst LP calculated that July 6, 2026, was day 826 and said the window for a market bottom could fall in early September.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders are generally less affected by short-term price swings. Their growing share of holdings indicates that circulating supply is shifting from short-term traders to longer-term investors. On-chain analyst Murphy said such concentration often occurs when market sentiment is pessimistic and selling pressure is gradually being absorbed, potentially signaling that a bear-market bottom is forming rather than warning of a price peak.

Murphy said Bitcoin’s long-term holders had accumulated a record net position as of June 17, locking up about 75% of the network’s circulating supply. Whether a bottom has been established will depend on whether their distributions continue to decline in stages. Only a sustained easing in selling would provide stronger confirmation that market selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, and continued accumulation by long-term holders reduces the amount available for trading on exchanges. Stockpiling strategies led by major institutions such as MicroStrategy have therefore become an important gauge of market liquidity and potential supply-demand imbalances.

Since the end of 2025, the cohort known as “conviction buyers” has expanded by 300% and now holds about 4 million BTC, nearly 20% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply. About 70% of recent entrants have unrealized gains. Analysts warned that if demand accelerates, declining liquid supply on exchanges could amplify price swings and trigger a supply shock.